Chinese automakers expected to achieve 33% global market share by 2030

Chinese automakers are expected to continue rapidly expanding outside of their home country to achieve 33% of the global automotive market share by 2030, according to a new report released Thursday by prominent consulting firm AlixPartners.

Much of the growth, from a forecast 21% market share this year, is expected to come outside of China. Sales outside of China are expected to grow from 3 million this year to 9 million by 2030, representing growth from 3% to 13% of market share by the end of this decade.

The rapid expansion of Chinese automakers is a growing concern for legacy automakers and politicians globally. Many fear that the less-expensive, China-made vehicles will flood the markets, undercutting domestic-produced models, especially all-electric vehicles.

AlixPartners said it expects the Chinese brands to grow across all markets globally. However, the firm added that it expects far smaller expansion in Japan and North America, including the U.S., where vehicle safety standards are more stringent and a 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs has been announced.

“China is the industry’s new disruptor – capable of creating must-have vehicles that are faster to market, cheaper to buy, advanced on tech and design, and more efficient to build,” Mark Wakefield, global co-leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, said in a statement.

In North America, Chinese automakers are forecast to only achieve a 3% market share, largely in Mexico, where one in five vehicles are expected to be Chinese brands by 2030. In most other major regions of the world, AlixPartners reports that the share of Chinese automakers is expected to exponentially grow. Those areas include Central and South America, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and Africa.

Chinese brands in China also are expected to grow from 59% to 72% in market share, according to AlixPartners. Legacy automakers such as General Motors have lost significant ground in China in recent years amid the rapid rise of China’s domestic automotive industry and companies such as BYD, Geely and Nio.

In Europe, where Chinese automakers have quickly grown in recent years, the market share of Chinese automotive brands is expected to double from 6% to 12% by 2030, according to AlixPartners.

Chinese automakers are expanding because they have cost advantages, localized production strategies that will enable a build-where-you-sell strategy in non-China markets, and highly tech-enabled vehicles that meet evolving consumer preferences for design and freshness, according to the report.

“Automakers expecting to continue operating under business-as-usual principles are in for more than just a rude awakening – they are headed for obsolescence,” Andrew Bergbaum, global co-leader of the automotive and industrial practice at AlixPartners, said in a statement.

Chinese EV automakers create new products in half the time of legacy automakers — 40 months vs. 20 months — mainly by designing and testing to sufficiently meet standards versus overengineering. They also have a 35% “Made-in-China” cost advantage.

Wakefield said for traditional automakers to compete with the Chinese automakers, they need to rethink their business development processes and pace of vehicle development.