A 4.7-degree rise in temperature will make Indian economy sweat, ADB report reveals

The ADB report indicates that the GDP in developing Asia-Pacific might drop by 17.9% by 2070 under a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. This reduction could increase to 41% by 2100.

Bangladesh faces the greatest potential impact, with an estimated GDP reduction of 30.5%. Other affected countries include Vietnam (30.2%), Indonesia (26.8%), and India (24.7%). The report also highlights potential losses for the rest of Southeast Asia (23.4%), higher-income Southeast Asia (22.0%), Pakistan (21.1%), the Pacific (18.6%), and the Philippines (18.1%).

The report warns that if the climate crisis escalates, up to 300 million people in the region could be at risk from coastal flooding, potentially causing trillions of dollars in damages to coastal properties annually by 2070.

The ADB emphasized, “Sea-level rise and labour productivity effects would dominate the losses, with relative effects concentrated in lower-income and fragile economies and those with large coastal populations. The impacts will be regressive and hit vulnerable and poor people the hardest.”

The report mentions that the Asia-Pacific region was responsible for about half of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, with significant contributions from China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa stated, “Climate change has supercharged the devastation from tropical storms, heat waves, and floods in the region, contributing to unprecedented economic challenges and human suffering. Urgent, well-coordinated climate action that addresses these impacts is needed before it is too late.”The report also highlights increased risks of landslides and floods, particularly in border areas between India and China, where landslides could increase significantly under extreme global warming conditions. Additionally, typhoons and cyclones may become more destructive, and climate-dependent sectors such as agriculture could see reduced output.

On mitigation, the report suggests that the region has the potential to adopt renewable energy and develop carbon markets to achieve climate goals cost-effectively.

The report estimates that annual investment for adaptation in the region ranges from $102 billion to $431 billion, which is much higher than the $34 billion tracked in adaptation finance for 2021-2022.