Big picture: Threat of 3-0 overshadows Southee fanfare
From whitewash to whitewash? It would be quite a humbling for New Zealand, after their exploits in India – though there is still time to salvage some pride. While they have been blanked at home by Australia on several recent occasions, those have tended to be two-Test series. Only twice have they lost three out of three in New Zealand: against Australia in 1999-2000, and England in 1962-63.
We are not there yet, but it has been a lacklustre series for Tom Latham’s side, their performance marred by dropped catches in Christchurch and a tentativeness that allowed England to run away with the game in Wellington, despite being inserted in ideal seam-bowling conditions. As is the New Zealand way, the response has been measured ahead of the third Test, with a return for Will Young, not a result of selectorial axe-wielding, but to allow Devon Conway time off for the birth of his first child.
Young was Player of the Series in India and perhaps he can help them rediscover their mojo from that tour. While their shock 3-0 win kept alive hopes of another World Test Championship appearance, those have now been extinguished, and the sense of a team in transition is likely to continue. Of the XI that beat India in the 2021 WTC final, only Latham, Conway, Kane Williamson and Tim Southee have been involved against England. Conway may return, despite only averaging 21.44 in Tests this year, but Southee is already in the departure lounge after signalling that this series would be his last.
It has not been the farewell Southee would have hoped for, despite the romantic notion of bowing out against the same opposition as when he started. His debut in Napier almost 17 years ago coincided with England’s last Test series win in New Zealand, but there was no doubting that Southee was a talent to watch after claiming a five-for then hammering 77 off 40 in a doomed run-chase. Plenty of neutrals will hope that he can summon something fittingly impactful on his last appearance at his home ground, Seddon Park, where the Pavilion End has been temporarily renamed the Tim Southee End for this match.
For England, while there may be a sense of “job done”, having taken the series with one to play, there is the clear incentive to finish an up-and-down year in Tests with a 10th win from 17. Much of the discussion around the team has been about rebooting and retooling for the challenges ahead – namely India at home next year followed by the Ashes in Australia – but they go into this game with Ben Stokes emphasising the need to take each challenge as it comes.
And with more than five months until their next assignment, against Zimbabwe at Trent Bridge, England’s final outing of 2024 has the potential to linger in the memory. Can Zak Crawley end his bizarre hoodoo against New Zealand? Will Jacob Bethell produce the definitive performance that says he is here to stay in the Test side? Is Chris Woakes quietly becoming a reliable overseas option at the grand old age of 35? This may be a dead rubber in the old sense, where even WTC points will be inconsequential, but there are still points to prove on both sides.
Form guide
New Zealand LLWWW (last five Tests, most recent first) England WWLLW
In the spotlight: Tim Southee and Zak Crawley
Tim Southee‘s record this year (15 wickets at 61.66) certainly suggests that the time has come, but perhaps the announcement should have been saved for nearer the curtain call. He has been a passenger in the series, repeatedly coming under attack from England’s batters and relegated to batting at No. 11 at Basin Reserve, where he suffered the added ignominy of being the concluding wicket in Gus Atkinson’s hat-trick. Southee’s record for New Zealand speaks for itself but he probably wouldn’t mind his numbers doing the talking (in a good way) one last time.
Zak Crawley has experienced more ups and downs than a toaster in an elevator during his time as an England player, and has long since learned to stay level. Whether he is even aware that he averages 10.15 from 10 Tests against New Zealand, across five separate series dating back to his debut at Seddon Park in 2019, is up for debate – and doubtless England won’t factor it into their thinking at all next summer. But just for his own satisfaction, he would surely like to lay a glove on Matt Henry, who has dismissed him four times in 19 deliveries without conceding a run this series.
Team news: Young in for Conway
Young will slot in at opener – having most recently batted at No. 3 – while New Zealand could also opt to bring in Mitchell Santner as a frontline spin option in place of Nathan Smith.
New Zealand: 1 Tom Latham (capt), 2 Will Young, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Mitchell Santner/Nathan Smith, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Will O’Rourke
England’s players filtered into Hamilton under their own steam on Wednesday and were not due to train until Friday. Woakes has been spared a third Test back to back, with Matt Potts coming in for his second appearance of the winter.
England: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jacob Bethell, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ollie Pope (wk), 7 Ben Stokes (capt), 8 Gus Atkinson, 9 Brydon Carse, 10 Matt Potts, 11 Shoaib Bashir
Pitch and conditions: Green from the outset
There has been plenty of rain in the build-up – New Zealand’s training was cut short after 30 minutes on Thursday – and the pitch has largely been under covers. But a glorious Friday meant the pitch was opened up to bright blue skies, and with a balmy weekend forecast, the pitch is likely to get baked. Seddon Park has been something of a stronghold for New Zealand, who have won seven of their last nine Tests there. Most recently, against South Africa in February, the ground saw three scores of under 250 before flattening out for the hosts to comfortably chase 267 three down in the fourth innings. The weather could play a part through the Test, with showers forecast on day three.
Stats and trivia
New Zealand haven’t lost a Test at Seddon Park since South Africa beat them by nine wickets in 2012.
Kane Williamson averages 94.26 at the ground, with six hundreds – including a career-best 251 against West Indies in 2020.
England have played two Tests in Hamilton: a high-scoring draw in 2019 and defeat by 189 runs in 2008, which precipitated the dropping of Steven Harmison and Matthew Hoggard for James Anderson and Stuart Broad.
Having lost 2-0 to Australia earlier in the year, New Zealand could equal their worst losing sequence of five in a row at home, set in 1955-56.
Joe Root needs 114 runs to become the fifth man to 13,000 in Tests. Gus Atkinson is two wickets shy of 50.
Quotes
“Any Test match you play for New Zealand, it’s another opportunity to perform your skills as best you can. We certainly don’t need any motivation for what we’re trying to do. The crowds that we’ve had, we know we haven’t played to our potential the last couple of games, but hopefully we can put a good show on for the fans. We really appreciate their support.” Tom Latham
“Seventeen [Tests] in a year is a lot when you add the other cricket, long tough slog but a really good year. Played some good cricket, found some extraordinarily talented players who have shown they’re capable of delivering big performances on the biggest stage, which is playing for your country. So overall, really happy.” Ben Stokes
Alan Gardner is a deputy editor at ESPNcricinfo. @alanroderick
