Job openings see gains in January in a sign of labor market stability

Job openings increased in January, providing at least a momentary sign of stability as questions linger over labor market stability, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that postings rose to 7.74 million on the month, up 232,000 from December and slightly ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 7.6 million. The tally kept the ratio of openings to available workers around 1.1 to 1.

Much of the gain came from retail, which saw an increase of 143,000 available positions, while finance gained 122,000. Professional and business services saw a decrease of 122,000 and leisure and hospitality fell by 46,000.

Quits, a measure of worker confidence in the ability to move to other jobs, moved higher to 3.27 million, an increase of 171,000.

While job openings were increasing, hires and layoffs held basically flat. Actions to pare the federal government workforce by the newly created Department of Government Efficiency advisory board, led by Elon Musk, were not captured in the January data.

“For now, the labor market remains stable. But that’s just January,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “The February report will likely look very different: federal government openings will plunge, quits will spike, and layoffs could finally begin to rise. In other words, calm today, but turbulence ahead.”

The JOLTS data provides some positive news for a labor market that otherwise has shown signs of softening. Nonfarm payrolls gains in February came in a bit below market expectations, and a recent survey from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated a surge in layoff announcements during the month.

Most recently, job review site Glassdoor found employee confidence to be at the lowest in the history of the firm’s survey, going back to 2016.

Federal Reserve officials consider the JOLTS report an important indicator of labor market slack. The central bank is expected to keep its key lending rate anchored in a range between 4.25%-4.5% when it meets next week.