India on Wednesday said it would suspend its participation in a crucial water-sharing agreement with Pakistan, a punitive measure that could wreak havoc on the country’s agriculture and economy.
The move came a day after militants killed 26 civilians who were visiting a scenic location in the part of Kashmir controlled by India. Both countries lay claim to and control parts of the strife-torn region. Although India did not blame Pakistan outright, it said there were “cross-border linkages” with the attackers.
India has threatened before, in other moments of rising tensions, to pull out of the Indus Waters Treaty, which both countries signed in 1960. If India follows through this time, it could restrict the flow of water that is used for most of Pakistan’s crop irrigation and human consumption. Agriculture represents one-fourth of the country’s economy.
The Pakistani government said on Thursday that it would consider any blockage of the water an “act of war.” India, larger and more developed, would have far less to lose by walking away from the pact, although it might face criticism from the global community and raise questions about whether it is flouting international law.
Here’s what to know.
What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
It is an agreement between India and Pakistan that specifies how the waters of six rivers and their tributaries, called the Indus waters, will be used by the two countries.
The agreement became necessary after 1947, when India and Pakistan became independent countries, although the treaty took a decade to negotiate and was signed in 1960, with the World Bank as a mediator. The treaty outlined the rights and obligations of both countries for “equitable use” of water flowing in the Indus river system.
India has unrestricted use of the waters of the three eastern rivers: the Ravi, the Sutlej and the Beas, two of which then flow into Pakistan. Pakistan has control of the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum, known as the western rivers, which pass through Indian-controlled territory but primarily reside in Pakistan. The treaty obligates India to let the waters of those rivers flow freely to Pakistan for its “unrestricted use.”
For decades, the treaty has been hailed as a landmark that could serve as a template for solving international water disputes. But in the past decade, India has threatened to weaponize the treaty during conflicts with Pakistan.
What does India’s withdrawal mean for Pakistan?
It would put Pakistan in a tough spot. The country is arid and has been battling acute water shortages, partly because of extreme weather events. Last month, Pakistan’s water regulator warned that Punjab and Sindh, the country’s key agricultural provinces, could already face water shortfalls of as much as 35 percent during the final phase of the current crop season.
Upcoming monsoon rains also hold risks for Pakistan because India could choose to release surplus water from the eastern rivers without prior notification, potentially triggering floods, said Naseer Memon, an Islamabad-based policy analyst focusing on water governance.
If India decides to withhold hydrological data, such as the timing of monsoons and floods, the unpredictability could hurt small farmers, Mr. Memon added.
Will India take a hit from its decision?
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to score domestic points with its move, while the international community would be likely to see it as little more than another aspect of the flare-up between two longstanding enemies, some analysts said.
“This is a clever, popular and populistic measure,” said Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Jawaharlal Nehru University.
The global community is more likely to be concerned if border tensions escalate into armed conflict, Mr. Jacob said. “So, India has nothing to lose internationally” in suspending the water treaty, he added.
Some analysts saw an opportunity for Pakistan to seek a better outcome by casting it as a matter of international law.
“You should not cause significant harm to another country — this is customary international law that is binding on all countries,” said Anwar Sadat, senior assistant professor at the Indian Society of International Law.
Hassan Abbas, a hydrology expert, said Pakistan had effectively compromised the rights of people who live in downstream areas by signing the 1960 treaty.
“India’s recent actions present a strategic opportunity for Pakistan to take the matter to The Hague,” he said. “By articulating its position more assertively, Pakistan could seek a comprehensive review of the treaty, potentially reclaiming its rightful share of water resources.”
Anti-India sentiment rose swiftly in Pakistan on Thursday. While addressing protesters in Lahore, Haris Dar, the leader of an Islamist political party, said India had “effectively declared war” on Pakistan.
“This is India’s water terrorism,” he said.
Content Source: www.nytimes.com