DC housing market shows signs of cracks amid mass federal layoffs

The supply of homes for sale across the nation always rises ahead of the busy spring market, but the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area is seeing an outsized increase, according to Realtor.com.

Inventory gains in the region, which includes the District as well as Maryland and Virginia suburbs, began to accelerate in January and February, up 35.9% and 41% year over year, respectively. Inventory in the area from June to December had already been 20% to 30% higher than the previous year, but the increases accelerated even further in recent months.

As of last week, active listings were up 56% compared with the same week one year ago.

“The adjustment period following federal layoffs and funding cuts has likely put some Washington D.C. home searches on hold, both for those whose jobs have been directly impacted and those who may be concerned about what’s ahead, and the data hints at these challenges,” wrote Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, in a release.

For comparison, active listings nationally were up 28% last week compared with the same week in 2024, according to Realtor.com, coinciding with a decline in mortgage rates. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan was around 7.25% in mid-January but fell steadily to 6.82% now, according to Mortgage News Daily.

The inventory gains in the D.C. area are not all due to people putting their homes on the market. New listings rose, but by much less than overall inventory, so the increase in overall supply is a combination of new listings and slowing buyer activity.

New listings were 24% higher year over year last week, contributing to the increase in for-sale inventory and dropping median days on market, Realtor.com found. New listings year to date are 11.9% above the year-ago level, but still 12.8% below where they were in 2022, according to Hale.

There also may be an outsized bump in inventory due to newly built condominiums and townhomes coming on the market now. Construction in the D.C. area has been very active over the past few years. The share of new construction listings is tilted much more toward condos than it was five years ago.

As for prices, the median list price in the D.C. metro area was down 1.6% year over year last week. For context, in the fourth quarter of last year, that median list price was down 1.5% annually.

The median list price nationally, as of last week, was down 0.2%, though it is heavily skewed by the type of home for sale. Controlling for the size of home, the median list price per square foot increased 1.2% annually, which means there are more smaller or lower-end homes on the market compared to last year. 

“While D.C. has the largest share of federal workers in the country, other highly federally employed markets could see similar shifts in the coming weeks or months,” said Hale. “While I expect many households will choose to stay in the area and pivot to find new job opportunities, some will likely choose to leave and retire or find a job elsewhere.”