RBI to cut rates tomorrow? Sitharaman has a message for the Monetary Policy Committee

Amid amid expectations of a 25 basis-points rate cut for the first time in years, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has a message for the Monetary Policy Commission which began deliberations on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank had last reduced the repo rate by 40 basis points to 4 per cent in May 2020 to help the economy tide over the crisis following the outbreak of the Covid pandemic and subsequent lockdown.“The Reserve Bank will take its own call. I can’t tell. But certainly, they have started realising that more liquidity should be made available and they have taken steps in the recent past. We have got to recognise that as well,” said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in an exclusive interview with The Economic Times.

RBI to cute rates after big wait?

India’s central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates in Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s first monetary policy review on Friday, aiming to boost economic growth which is seen falling to a four-year low. A longtime bureaucrat who was previously the revenue secretary in the Ministry of Finance, Malhotra hasn’t given any public speeches since his appointment, making it difficult to gauge his views on inflation and the currency. However, Bloomberg quoting RBI insiders said that he favors a more hands-off approach on the rupee than his predecessor, and has shown a willingness to allow the currency to weaken along with global peers.

Malhotra has added reason to cut interest rates after recent data showed the economy slowed more than expected and US President Donald Trump sends shockwaves through global markets with new tariff threats. A rate cut by the RBI this week would follow last week’s record tax cuts of $12 billion in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s annual budget to juice the economy.

Over 70% of respondents polled by Reuters expected that the RBI would cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% at the conclusion of its Feb. 5-7 meeting, while others expect it will keep rates unchanged, mostly because of the above-target inflation.

The move will come after the Finance Minister announced big tax relief in the Union Budget on February 1, to boost spending and spur growth. The budget proposes zero levy for taxable income up to Rs 12 lakh, while raising the basic exemption limit from Rs 3 lakh to Rs 4 lakh a year. In the new regime, those with a taxable salary of up to Rs 7 lakh a year do not pay any tax through the appropriate rebates. The government said about one million assessees, who earlier paid Rs 20,000-80,000 tax annually, will now pay nothing. A person earning Rs 12 lakh a year would save Rs 80,000 in taxes.(with agency inputs)