Why inflation rate may not be the most ‘accurate gauge’ of the economy?

The report said that both household and business surveys by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A) suggest a stable demand environment, despite the impact of price fluctuations in key food items on headline inflation.

“The headline inflation rate, influenced as it is by a few food items, may not be the most accurate gauge of underlying demand,” the government said.

This is not the first time that the Department Economic Affairs, headed by CEA Nageswaran, has highlighted the need to eliminate food from India’s inflation framework. Earlier in its survey report for 2023-24, it had said that India’s monetary policy framework should consider targeting inflation that excludes food, the prices of which are influenced more by supply than demand.

However, as the debate fumes, experts like Raghuram Rajan, former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor, have cautioned against excluding food prices from inflation calculations. “So, if you leave out some of the most important parts of inflation and tell them, inflation is under control, but food prices are going through the roof… they would not have great faith in the Reserve Bank,” Rajan had told earlier this month.

Meanwhile, in September, India’s consumer price inflation experienced an uptick at 5.49 per cent, largely attributed to the erratic monsoon impacting vegetable supplies. However, inflation across many other food categories saw notable relief, the report by FinMin said. The Economic Survey further highlighted that pulses inflation dropped to single digits for the first time since June 2023, which is a result of effective initiatives like Bharat Dal and strict stock monitoring.

“Core inflation continues to remain within the comfort zone, exhibiting no pass-through from food inflation of the past or the present. Going ahead, sufficient food grain buffer stock and optimism for a healthy kharif harvest will likely alleviate price pressures,” the government said in its September report.