2025 ZiPS Projections: San Francisco Giants

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

Well, the Giants have solved at least one problem: finding another Buster Posey. Not in the form of Joey Bart, as was the original intention for a few years, but rather in Patrick Bailey. Now, Bailey isn’t quite peak Posey, an unreasonable expectation to have of anyone, but he has become a legitimate star behind the plate. Bailey also doesn’t exhibit the same distribution of talent as Posey did, as Bailey is arguably the most valuable defensive player in baseball with just enough bat to make that drool-worthy. To make a reference that’s even too old for me, Bailey’s a bit like a reboot of The Six Million Dollar Man in which they had the technology to build the cyber-Platonic ideal of Austin Hedges.

Bailey isn’t the only high spot in the lineup. Matt Chapman, who it seems the projections were not too high on in 2024 after all, should have at least a few good years left in him, and the Giants are generally at least average-ish elsewhere. ZiPS is higher than the other systems on Tyler Fitzgerald, and both the computer and I are hoping to see what Jung Hoo Lee can do after injuries cost him the opportunity to make good on what was shaping up to be a middling-at-best debut in the US.

Everyone should have someone in their life who looks at them the way ZiPS looks at David Villar. Either he’ll be a notable miss that people helpfully remind me of 15 years from now, or the Dodgers will pick him up for free and he’ll put up a few inexplicable 5-WAR seasons.

Overall, the offense looks about average, possibly a bit below. Remember, a lot of the position player WAR here comes from the impressive defensive contributions of Chapman and Bailey. The Giants are a tricky offense to upgrade, however, as there’s just a lot of average and not much in the way of blazing dumpster fires.

Pitchers

If ZiPS is to be believed — and you’re reading a ZiPS article, so hopefully you’re at least open to believing it — the pitching, and more specifically, the starting pitching, is San Francisco’s biggest obstacle. For the umpteenth year in a row, ZiPS is super into Logan Webb, who has steadily ranked in the top three for WAR over any X number of future years for about three years now, only occasionally swapping places with hurlers like Corbin Burnes. The problem, of course, isn’t Webb.

The problem is that ZiPS just does not want anything to do with the rest of the rotation. Robbie Ray’s projection is fine enough, but I’m not sure how comfortable I would be banking on it. ZiPS is still unsure about Kyle Harrison, and while there were some things to like about Jordan Hicks as a full-time starter, ZiPS didn’t care for the disappearance of his strikeout rate. While it does expect a better season given his contact rate against, uncertainty really drags down his projection. ZiPS has little interest in the starting pitching depth past this, with some organizational players even sprinkled in the WAR rankings. ZiPS has projected Keaton Winn solidly in the past, but with an ulnar nerve transposition procedure, it’s best to just wait and see.

The bullpen’s outlook is much sunnier. ZiPS is downright excited about both Ryan Walker and the prospect of seeing Erik Miller as a full-time reliever — his ERA projection purely as a reliever would be 2.66! ZiPS likes Tristan Beck more than Steamer does, and while it sees some ballooning in the ERAs of the Rogerses, they’re still contributors. The computer’s even giving Camilo Doval a good bounce-back projection. All told, it’s enough to push the Giants into above-average territory among bullpens.

All in all, the Giants look like a team that’s hovering around .500 or possibly a skosh above. For Giants fans, that’s not an unfamiliar place to be after the last three seasons.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.