Andrew Abbott is establishing himself as a top-shelf starter. Now in his third big league season, the 26-year-old southpaw has a record of 8-1 to go with a 2.13 ERA and a 3.42 FIP over 97 1/3 innings. Moreover, he represented the Cincinnati Reds in last week’s All-Star Game. An honorable mention in Ben Clemens’ ongoing Trade Value series, Abbott merits attention — and he’s been receiving his fair share of it here at FanGraphs. Jake Mailhot wrote about him in mid-May, and Michael Baumann followed up by doing so in mid-June; Baumann also covered Abbott as a rookie in this piece from August 2023.
Accuse us of being AbbottGraphs if you’d like, but the University of Virginia product is getting yet another write-up courtesy of yours truly. Being a big fan of crafty lefties, I wasn’t about to pass up the opportunity to talk to Abbott — as well as to others about Abbott — when the Reds visited Fenway Park earlier this month.
Not surprisingly, his self-assessment pretty much matched what I’ve read and seen.
“I’m not an overpowering guy,” acknowledged Abbott, whose 92.4-mph fastball velocity ranks in the 21st percentile. “Mixing speeds and getting guys off balance has always been the name of the game with me. That and staying in the zone as much as possible. I also take pride in being available, being able to throw 100 pitches every fifth day.”
Abbott attacks the strike zone fearlessly with all of his pitches, including the pedestrian fastball. Over 17 starts, he has a 6.3% walk rate — his accompanying strikeout rate is 22.3% — and he has issued two or fewer free passes in all but three of his outings.
‘He’s a bulldog,” Reds broadcast analyst Chris Welsh told me. “The guy expects to go out there and shut ’em down, and most of the time he does. Attitude goes a long way.”
“He’s got some moxie to him,” added Simon Mathews, Cincinnati’s assistant pitching coach. “That supports his ability to execute what is a pretty funky look to his fastball, as well as two really good breaking balls and a changeup. He’s got a faith in himself that is really impressive for a guy with unconventional stuff.”
What makes the left-hander’s stuff unconventional?
“The lack of top-end velo on the heater,” Mathews said. “Lack of top-end shape to it, as well. It’s got a pretty flat approach, and a little bit of carry to it, but none of those numbers are going to jump off the page to you. Same thing with his breaking balls. The sweeper is probably going to jump off the Stuff+ models a little more so than the curveball. The changeup plays above its raw shape. I mean, he’s an absolute beauty. When he takes the ball, he believes in how good his stuff is. We know a lot of the underlying reasons why [the fastball] might be really good, but it still takes a lot of nerve to throw fastballs in the zone in the major leagues. He’s certainly got that.”
Abbott is academic off the field — he earned a three-year degree in biology at UVA, then returned to get a masters in education — but on the mound he is “more of a traditional guy than an analytical type.” While he understands that underlying characteristics help his stuff play up, he claims not to put much thought into the specifics, such as his approach angle and the movement profiles that follow. As Mailhot surmised in his May article, Abbott’s fastball “doesn’t come in where they expect it to.”
Hitters have told Abbott about the deceptive properties of his arsenal.
“I’ve heard from some guys that the ball just kind of jumps, that it gets on them quicker than they expected,” he said. “There is a rise effect from when it leaves my hand to where it gets to the plate. I’ve also heard that my sweeper and curveball are tight-spinners, that they can’t really pick up the spin and they just kind of go. But it’s different from person to person. Right? Everyone has got their own thoughts.”
I asked Tyler Stephenson for his thoughts on Abbott’s arsenal and approach.
“With his delivery — kind of crossfire — he gets good carry on his heater,” said the Reds catcher. “I think it surprises a lot of people. A lot of guys will swing through it, or foul it off. He’s also got really good feel for his spin. And something that has really developed in the last year has been his changeup. It’s turned into a huge weapon.”
Thrown at a 20.1% clip — up from 16.3% a year ago — Abbott’s changeup has been his second-most-frequent offering, behind only his sneaky-good heater (47.6%). The curveball (15.5%), sweeper (12.4%), and cutter (4.4%) comprise the remainder of his offerings this season.
While atypical, Abbott is by no means a unicorn. With that in mind, I asked Stephenson and Welsh if there are any pitchers to whom they’d compare the first-time All-Star. Stephenson, who is in his sixth big league season, couldn’t come up with an answer, but Welsh did, and with little hesitation.
“A comparison I’d give is Tom Browning,” said Welsh, who pitched in the big leagues from 1981-1986 before joining the broadcast ranks. “I played with Tommy and knew that style of left-handed pitching pretty well. [Abbott] throws a four-seam fastball up, and kind of hides the ball because he throws across his body a little bit. It’s hard to pick up. He’s also made a little bit of an adjustment this year, working in more changeups. He’s also straightened out his delivery just a little bit toward home plate. I think that has helped him with his offspeed stuff, especially the changeup. But yes, I’d say Tommy.”
Browning toed the rubber in Cincinnati from 1984-1994 and ranks among the better pitchers in Reds history. Three years in, Abbott has a chance to forge a similar career.
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