Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

section 34: Who is the best starting pitcher likely to be available and which prospects must the Orioles deal to get him?

Ben Clemens: I mean, the BEST? Crochet

Ben Clemens: I think the White Sox are going to want a haul, though, and rightly so

Ben Clemens: He’s an interesting case, I’ve been doing a lot of due diligence on mover and shaker type pitchers for the trade value list

Ben Clemens: coming at you at the end of the month, etc

Ben Clemens: I’m really not quite sure what to do with guys like him, Skubal, basically the people in Dan’s article today

Ben Clemens: so okay, Skubal and Crochet are both free agents after the 2026 season

Ben Clemens: we think they’ll both be excellent over those years

Ben Clemens: like, 8-ish WAR in 2.5 years, that’s a pretty good projection for a pitcher

Ben Clemens: but also… by the same projections, Coby Mayo, for example, is at 8 for those years

Ben Clemens: I’d trade Mayo for either of those dudes

Ben Clemens: but I’m struggling to wrap my head around how the league will behave

Matt VW: Which fringe-ish pre-Statcast era player do you wish we had the new numbers on? I want Wily Mo Pena exit velocities.

Ben Clemens: We’ve talked about this one before, and yes, it’s Wily Mo and then I would love bat tracking on Bonds

Ben Clemens: his homers per swing got so ludicrous at his steroid-aided peak

Ben Clemens: like, it would just be a spectacle

Stephen: So Volpe seems to be an average hitter so far (hot start and trending down towards 100 wRC+, not great statcast sliders). How confident are you that he’ll become a good hitter?

Ben Clemens: I’m above average confident that he’ll end up in the 100-120 wRC+ range

Ben Clemens: which is great for a plus defensive shortstop

Ben Clemens: I think there’s very little debate on that front, btw

Ben Clemens: baserunning and defense dude with marginally plus hitting, he’s like Lindor Lite

Ben Clemens: works for me!

bigtimetimmyjim: giants homestand looked good! I feel like the ahmed wisely middle infield combo is better than the wisely estrada right now, any thoughts on that?

Ben Clemens: I was at two of the games and watched most of the rest, feeling very Giants-y of late

Ben Clemens: man, this is tough

Ben Clemens: strangely i feel like the one you have to play is Wisely?

Ben Clemens: the otehr two can’t hit

Ben Clemens: i might prefer Wisely SS Estrada 2B though

Ben Clemens: I can’t quite talk myself into Ahmed

Nate: Is Paul Skenes a top 10 pitcher yet

Guest: Any hope that the Nats could sign Soto?

Ben Clemens: I hope this is Cheng, if so hi

Ben Clemens: if not, though…. I mean, it’s within the realm of possibility

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s likely, but it gets a lot more likely if the Yankees do worse than expected adn the Nats have a crazy good second half

Kevin: What do you know or imagine teams might be doing with artificial intelligence tools? Have you heard of anyone digging in to this topic?

Ben Clemens: There was a really good series on increasing velo in the Athletic last week

Ben Clemens: I’d highly recommend reading that

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure to what extent this is mirrored across the game but they had some interviews with the Driveline folks talking about using AI to try to develop optimized pitching mechanics

Princess Leia: Help us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our only hope!

Start Bregman or Big Royce Lewis in a H2H points this week?

And is it time to cut Carroll for Wyatt Langford in the same league?

Ben Clemens: I could not cut Carroll, but I’d strat Royce I think

Vladdy G: Vladdy cut his hair on June 19 and is slashing 409/435/932 with 6 HR and a wRC+ of 282 since then.  If he shaved his head completely, what would those numbers look like?

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing… 282 wRC+

Ben Clemens: Vladdy Samson is a fun story, though

Ben Clemens: I’m rooting for it to keep going

Datt Mamon: Heliot Ramos – real, sustainable, etc.?

Ben Clemens: I wrote about him last week (I think? maybe two weeks ago)

Ben Clemens: Essentially I think that it’s on the whole real, I think he’s made some meaningful adjustments since his prospect star faded

Ben Clemens: I do think that he’s going to go through some growing pains, though, b/c essentially he’s worked out a good adjustment that is getting him ahead in counts

Ben Clemens: but pitchers will probably throw something new at him

DBRuns: Cleveland’s catchers rank 2nd in MLB in WAR (big surprise, to me). Is that a result of counting all 211 of David Fry’s PAs towards catcher WAR? Or are only those PA/innings behind the plate counted?

Ben Clemens: okay so, I don’t see that?

Ben Clemens: here’s our leaderboard with positional split ‘as C’

Ben Clemens: it has cleveland 10th, with 57 PA and 1 WAR from Fry there

Ben Clemens: ah yeah, use ‘positional split’ and not ‘primary position’

Ben Clemens: if you want to only count when they’re at the spot

Ben Clemens: we have both so that you don’t have to do dumb things like look at the list of catcher WAR and have adley missing b/c he DH’s

Ben Clemens: but I like using positional split when I’m looking at teams

Broken Bat: It sure does get messy when your team underperforms for a few straight years… So the current major underachievers seem to be the Jays and Cubs. They both have their GM’s in place for several years, and  Both teams have had some injuries but IMO the root chase of continuous frustration is roster construction. I imagine both GM’s feel the heat. They are between a rock and a hard place. How do either or both of them salvage anything by staying the course and not trading for prospects or trading for the prospects. It almost seems like both of them regardless are dead men walking. Winning, is that the only thing that will,keep,Atkins or Hoyer employable as GM?

Ben Clemens: employable as a GM? I don’t really think so

Ben Clemens: people seem to be more re-employable than I’d expect

Ben Clemens: that said, I think that only winning can fix both of these situations. if the Cubs lurch back into a rebuild, why would you keep Hoyer? And the Jays put together this grand decade-long plan and well, if it doesn’t bear fruit, maybe someone new should take the helm

Ben: Are there any realistic buyers for Lane Thomas?

Ben Clemens: i think so, but I think the market is gonna be pretty soft

Ben Clemens: I’m avoiding specific trade proposals in today’s chat, b/c we’re gonna do enough of those as we get later into July

Ben Clemens: but I think that Thomas has just gotten too close to the end of team control to be a huge trade piece

Ben Clemens: and he’s playing almost exclusively in the corner, now, so there are a lot of those types with better bats available

War2D2: The Cubs seem to just be a bad team at this point. What would you do if you were in their shoes? They have a deep farm system with a lot of 45FVs, but not a lot of 55FVs. Would you empty some of it out for a Mason Miller/Robert Jr./etc “big” move, or dump guys like Cody Bellinger and other short-term assets for…more 45FV guys? I guess? Seems like they’re both in a decent position, and also not one to easily move out of.

Ben Clemens: I think I’d just stay the course, to be honest

Ben Clemens: I don’t really think that making a big move makes sense, although I suppose Robert could change my mind on that

Ben Clemens: I think that one thing that teams who haven’t put it all together yet under-appreciate is that having a big mass of good but not great prospects increases the chances of a breakout somewhere

Ben Clemens: if they fall completely out of the race, sure trade rentals for some prospects that are’nt on the 40

Ben Clemens: but eh, I actually like the overall construction of the Cubs org

War2D2: re: Statcast for oldy-old times, I’d want Statcast on historic fireballers like Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan. Joe Posnanski made bold claims in his “Baseball 100” that he thought Satchel Paige was throwing 100+, and I’m guessing it’s more like the league was throwing 80 and he was throwing 90 and it looked like 100.

Ben Clemens: yeah! I was thinking more people within my lifetime

Ben Clemens: Rickey Henderson sprint speed

Ben Clemens: Babe Ruth exit velo, the break on Candy Cummings, the inventor of the curveball

wheelhouse: how much longer do i have to watch anthony volpe, leadoff hitter? and whose job was it to hear him say “I’m gonna flatten my swing to hit the ball on the ground more” and not strap him to the Clockwork Orange rig with videos of Alex Bregman until he recants?

Ben Clemens: oh man, now THIS take I agree with wholeheartedly

Ben Clemens: Volpe will be at his best if his offense trends in a Bregman direction

Ben Clemens: that’s not a leadoff hitter

ResumeMan: Been to any Ballers games? We’ve been to 2 and it was good fun (though would probably be even more fun if we could hit a game that wasn’t a blowout loss…)

Ben Clemens: No, but I’m planning on it later this summer

Ben Clemens: Going to a Stompers game in July too

bosoxforlife: Has Jackson Merrill moved ahead in the NL ROY? I just watched him tear the Red Sox apart and was astonished by how good he is.

Ben Clemens: So, yes, but it’s going to depend heavily on Skenes

Ben Clemens: and Yamamoto, obv, but I think especially Skenes

Ben Clemens: there’s also that whole you’re never as good as you look at your best thing

Ben Clemens: Merrill’s power has been a surprise

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical that he’s gonna keep it up, but I’ve been very impressed by the bat to ball

Ben Clemens: which I was supposed to be impressed by, of course

Pirates: Why did the Pirates DFA a broken, but serviceable Roansy Contreras, then replace him on the team with the absolute worst from the waiver wire? GMBC says they’re betting on pitch characteristics they like. Are the characteristics how the rainbow shot looks off the other teams bat? Marvel at this stat line, Ben Heller: 2 IP, 49.50 ERA (14.16 FIP), **20 TBF**

Ben Clemens: I really don’t know

Ben Clemens: I was surprised they gave up on Contreras in the rotation, let alone overall

Derek: Not to be overly pedantic (actually, precisely to be overly pedantic), this is really Vladdy Nega-Samson – his hair was holding him back, not giving him power!

Ben Clemens: Oh wow yeah, excellent point

Ben Clemens: dunno why I thought that way

bdubs: Two players who came out of nowhere this year: India and Josh Smith. Which is more likely to keep it going ROS? The Fangraph projections tilt towards Smith but love India’s home park. You?

Ben Clemens: if we’re talking fantasy value, I’m on India, but honestly both face some playing time crunches and I’d probably be looking to deal either if someone was interested

Ben Clemens: Matt McLain obviously deserves a spot in Cincy, and he’ll get one

Ben Clemens: it’s gonna result in a jam, I’m not saying India will get pinched but if he struggles time will dry up

Ben Clemens: I think it’s not quite as bad on teh Rangers but the problem with Smith is that realistically, you’re counting on his defense to give you a floor on his value given his slap hitting tendencies

Ben Clemens: So when Josh Jung comes back….

Ben Clemens: like, are the Rangers really gonna run out Smith in an outfield corner?

Ben Clemens: that’s basically where they have availability. I think they will. But I worry that if he gets cold, he’ll turn into a platoon guy fast

Oaktown Blues: Jacob Wilson has a .411 cumulative minor league BA. He batted .455 in AA, got a promotion, and is batting .447 in AAA (ISO over .200 at both levels). Scouts think he’ll stay at SS. Shouldn’t this guy be getting more top prospect hype?

Ben Clemens: looking through his statcast stuff now

Ben Clemens: I mean, it’s a matter of degree, it seems to me

Ben Clemens: we have him as a top 100 guy, second in the system behind Miller (so #1 now)

Ben Clemens: same with mlb.com

Ben Clemens: I think the reason he’s not getting like absolutely shoved is that he has really low raw power

Ben Clemens: there’s just not a lot there in terms of loud contact. but he’s also only 51 PA into his triple-a career

Ben Clemens: so that’s extremely early to say anything

Ben Clemens: I will say, I’m often in on these bat control no-K guys, and I predictably really like Wilson

Ben Clemens: but he needs to hit some more bombs if I’m gonna put him at the VERY top of the list

MilwakeeBeerjays: Hey Ben. What’s your favourite dinosaur?

Ben Clemens: great question, BeerJays

Ben Clemens: it’s a stegosaurus

Ben Clemens: I really like those dorsal spines, and I like that (as of when I cared more about dinosaurs, at least) we didn’t really know what they were for

Ben Clemens: love a little mystery

War2D2: Rickey already know what Rickey’s sprint speed was. FAST. Rickey already know he fast.

Oddball Herrera: So  here’s the thing with Ramos from your article, and I think it brings up an interesting general question.  Whenever I see a guy who has done an approach change, I worry that he’s merely “ambushing” pitchers, and those pitchers will eventually adjust (see Ramos’ last two weeks).  On the spectrum of “breakout/sustainability indicators” there are a bunch of stats I’d be more comfortable with than a “I’m going to start swinging at first pitches” type change, which seems like it’d prone to turning into a game of whack-a-mole

Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I mean I think that is always worth thinking about

Ben Clemens: I’d flip it on you, htough

Ben Clemens: to me, what was going on is that pitchers were ambushing Ramos

Ben Clemens: flip in a curveball and get ahead to exploit his swing and miss tendencies without having to challenge him in the zone to get ahead

Ben Clemens: b/c they just assumed he wouldn’t swing

Ben Clemens: now he’s forcing them to pitch him straight up, without the little cheat code soft curve

Ben Clemens: now, he got lots of these cheapie hits off of those, don’t get me wrong

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that part is sustainable, they’re not gonna keep lobbing them in there

Ben Clemens: but I think he’s a pretty good hitter when he’s getting pitched straight up. His style of hitter does a lot better ahead in the count than behind, and teams had been preying on that early in his career

Ben Clemens: it’s not like he’s just blindly hacking at first pitches

Ben Clemens: he’s just going up there thinking that if he sees something soft and high, he’s gonna take a big rip

Ben Clemens: honestly I think that more hitters should do something about the in-zone soft breaking ball for strike one trend

Half Street: Thoughts on James Wood?

Strange Angel: I’m sure it’s been asked, but what’s your floor/ceiling expectation for James Wood this season and long-term?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, lots of James Wood questions today, as there should be

Ben Clemens: I’m very hyped

Ben Clemens: I’m extremely Team Wood, I got ridiculed for having him as my top prospect next year

Ben Clemens: and maybe ridiculed is strong, but lots of derisive comments

Ben Clemens: I’m not a big floor ceiling guy

Ben Clemens: but how about latter-day Joey Gallo floor, Tyler O’Neill median, Aaron Judge ceiling

Ben Clemens: I’m really into it, and I think that guys like Wood are the kinds of prospects who turn into generational players

Ben Clemens: not always, obviously

sonny: The problem with turning Volpe into Bregman is that he tried that, it didn’t work. People underestimate how hard it is to be a RH pull hitter in Yankee Stadium. Look at the ghost of Josh Donaldson for what it looks like when you sell out for pull power and you’re not Stanton/Judge strong.

Ben Clemens: I disagree with that

Ben Clemens: Yankee Stadium consistently has high HR park factors for righty hitters

Ben Clemens: and that’s not some fluke of Judge playing there and on the road, it holds true when he’s not playing, etc.

Ben Clemens: like… Donaldson left and went to Milwaukee and was still bad

Ben Clemens: the thing that happened to him is that he got old

MilwakeeBeerjays: RE: Dinosaurs

MilwakeeBeerjays: Scales or feathers?

Ben Clemens: You know, scales in my head. Even though I know they’re more likely to be feathers

Ben Clemens: you can’t erase my childhood view of things

metsetradio: With two positions conceivably up for grabs next year for the Mets (2nd and 3rd) What do you do with all of these infield prospects if you’re David Stearns (Mauricio, Baty, Vientos, Jett, Acuna, etc)? Who are you looking to keep and who are you trading for pitching?

Ben Clemens: what I would do is keep them all until at least one establishes himself in the majors

Ben Clemens: possibly two

Ben Clemens: basically I like the implied optionality value you get from having a bunch of pretty good prospects

Ben Clemens: if they had a single ultra elite dude I’d be more interested in dealing from my surplus

Ben Clemens: but I think this is a strength in numbers situation

Guest: It’s not likely to happen, but how fun would a Dodgers Rays mega deal be? Dodgers get Paredes, Caballero, and Palacio, and Rays get Lux, Outman, Vargas, and some combination of catching and pitching prospects (Rushing, Cartaya, Wrobeleski, Hurt, Frasso). Dodgers get long term support at 3B and SS, where they don’t really have too many internal options, and the Rays get future upgrades at positions they don’t really have prospects for and get a couple players who have had recent success that they can flip if they start to hit again.

Ben Clemens: This sounds very interesting, and I give you kudos for the trade construction. Everyone on both sides is both very Dodgers-y and very Rays-y

Ben Clemens: Um…. I mean for me it’d be very fun

Ben Clemens: I love MANY of these players

Ben Clemens: I think that the Dodgers probably don’t need Palacios enough to make this deal happen, and my sense from talking to people across the industry is that even now, teams are not sold on Paredes

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna get less pushback when I send my list out this year b/c I’m finally not going to send it out with Paredes in the top 50, haha

Ben Clemens: although honestly maybe I still should

Ben Clemens: he just continues to mash

Ben Clemens: but basically, I think to make this trade the Dodgers have to value Paredes more highly than I think they do

Strange Angel: Random thought on that Rays-Dodgers trade, how much worse is Paredes in the larger Dodger stadium? It seems like his success is dependent on pulled XBHs that wouldn’t necessarily work in a bigger stadium

Ben Clemens: rational reason not to trade for him

Giant Gonzales: After a year and a half of doing this, has Jarren Duran established himself as a MLB starting OF, who possibly gets an All Star nod this year? Older prospect who revamped his swing during covid and struggled with going up/down to AAA afterwards, he’s been a huge reason BOS is still hanging in the playoff picture this year.

Ben Clemens: completely established

Ben Clemens: ZiPS is skeptical about him…. and thinks he’s a legit starting outfielder with upside

Ben Clemens: I could see him maybe getting an AS nod this year, he’s been electric

DJ Tofu: What do you think is a fair trade for the Giants to get Coby Mayo?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, this does not sound like a thing that would happen

Ben Clemens: the Giants are the exact kind of team that don’t line up well with the O’s

Ben Clemens: they’re like a version of Baltimore turned down 10%

Ben Clemens: no giant roster holes but not enough difference makers

Ben Clemens: like the Giants’ best trade chips are Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey

Ben Clemens: but they aren’t trading those guys

Ben Clemens: and I don’t think you can make a deal around Camilo Doval that makes sense

Ben Clemens: so I just don’t see a fit here

Pat: Skubal for Jackson Holliday- Who says No?

Ben Clemens: Hot take: the O’s say no, but they shouldn’t

Ben Clemens: Holliday’s line in the minors in June is SO weird

Ben Clemens: .444 OBP, .378 SLG

Ben Clemens: wtf is going on here, you know?

Ben Clemens: since coming back down he’s hitting .252/.425/.421, and I just don’t think those walk skills are obviously gonna play

Ben Clemens: in the majors

Ben Clemens: 23% walk rate, i mean….

Ben Clemens: I dunno I’m still very optimistic

Ben Clemens: but I don’t think he’s a surefire all star, and Skubal is right now

Ben Clemens: I recognize that this puts me in a strange spot as an evaluator

Ben Clemens: If you’re counting expected WAR, even if you do some non-linear shaped stuff to make avearge players less valuable and stars better, Holliday easily tops Skubal

Ben Clemens: but I just don’t think it plays that way in real life

MilwakeeBeerjays: It’s gotta be feathers right? Jurassic Park, while being one of the the most entertaining movies ever, has pushed the scaled agenda for years. Do your *RESEARCH* people.

Ben Clemens: Look, it’s almost certainly feathers. Just, scales looked so cool in all my kids’ books

Ben Clemens: that said, my theoretical future child will be getting the correct modern-day knowledge from me so that htey don’t grow up living a lie like I did

Hunter: Let’s say Spencer Torkelson comes back up after the all star break and basically reproduces his second half from last year (120ish WRC+, 25ish HRs). What would you do with him?

Ben Clemens: I’d give him another shot but with a really short leash

Ben Clemens: er, well, no, 25 bombs after the ASB is wild

Ben Clemens: he had 19 last year it looks like

Ben Clemens: I’m…. I’m pretty out on Tork to be honest

Ben Clemens: I thought Dan’s article about him was very good

Dan: When a pitcher changes their delivery and to a lessor extent when a hitter changes his swing it surprises me they are as successful as they are. Isn’t a large part of why they are successful that they have practice the pitch/swing hundreds of thousands of times? It not like you can just tell a world class athlete (from another sport) how to swing a bat and expect them to be competitive at the MLB level.

Ben Clemens: I’ve thought about this a lot

Ben Clemens: and I think that the key here is that MOST of the things they’re doing with the new delivery or swing are the same

Ben Clemens: and that in fact, the best coaches do a really good job of keeping the important parts consistent

Ben Clemens: so like…. maybe you change your arm slot slightly but the swing and the followthrough feel so similar that it’s fine

Ben Clemens: I think that elite athletes are good at repeating motions for sure, but they’re also adaptable within those motions

J: If you were given a chance to start a new expansion team what type of skill would you base your team around to try to gain edge?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d a)spend a lot of time hiring developmenet staff

Ben Clemens: and b) I’m me, so I’d be on the lookout for the next generation of either Paredes/Schneider types or Betts/JRam types

Ben Clemens: like obviously everyone is. but as an expansion team I’d try to spend more of my resources than normal on those guys

Ben Clemens: I think that from a resource expenditure to possible big league return perspective, there’s some juice there

bosoxforlife: I had an experience in golf with one of my best juniors. He was recruited heavily and went to a top college golf program. Immediately the coach sent him to a new coach and in no time couldn’t break 80. True idiocy!

Ben Clemens: sounds like the new coach wasn’t the right one

Okra: Chances that Strider, Acuna, Olsen all had their career best seasons last year? 80%?  90%?  Hurts that Atlanta did not capitalize

Ben Clemens: blah, I was looking into Strider’s long-term projections earlier today

Ben Clemens: I think that Olson and Acuna having their best years are pretty likely

Ben Clemens: just b/c those were AMAZING years

Ben Clemens: I’m less sold on Strider

Ben Clemens: the thing is, if he comes back healthy, I think he could easily be ’23 Strider

Ben Clemens: so I’m gonna say in aggregate, 50%?

Ben Clemens: like maybe one of those other two spikes a season

Ben Clemens: but Strider still projects as incredible when healthy

Ben Clemens: I think he could spike a healthy good season pretty easily

Best year!: “I think that Olson and Acuna having their best years are pretty likely
“

just b/c those were AMAZING years.” I remember that people said this about 2017 Judge

Ben Clemens: that’s why I said ‘pretty likely’ instead of 0%

Ben Clemens: I’m just a hedger at heart

Derek: How well do you think an expansion team run by the entire current FanGraphs staff would fare? My gut tells me the answer would be at least “quite well”, and probably better!

Ben Clemens: Haha, I’m not very modest, so I’d say we’ll do well

Ben Clemens: we’d* do well

Ben Clemens: that said, I do like the big dispersal of talents we have. We have modelers, scouts, mechanics-type people

Ben Clemens: I guess we have me? I’m not sure what category I fit in

Ben Clemens: Appelman is a very good overall decision maker, so is Meg, I think they’d do a good job at the top of the org

JK: One thing I really appreciate about FanGraphs, and you, is the trend of “process over results”. How often do you need to see bad results before you think about process change?

Ben Clemens: on this topic!

Ben Clemens: I’m cognizant that I lean too much on process at times. I think that the best you can do is really focus on updating your priors. A thing that I try to do when I’m doing more long-term evaluations of players, particularly for the trade value series, is to separately do evaluations of people based on what I think right now

Ben Clemens: and look at my old evals and ZiPS’s evals later

Ben Clemens: then kind of hone in on where there are big differences and try to figure out whether I’m just being weirdly biased

Ben Clemens: I guess I’d say that this goes two ways

Ben Clemens: on a player level, I’m willing to move more quickly

Ben Clemens: b/c you’re getting all this new data

Ben Clemens: but on a team construction level, I’m more interested in my prior views, b/c there just aren’t THAT many observations

Dan: I don’t think the FanGraphs team is nearly big enough to run a baseball team. If youre only 1/4 of the staff are you really running the team and if you’re spending your time corporate managing instead of scouting, modeling etc you are only tapping a portion of your talent.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah we’d hire massively

Ben Clemens: nowhere near big enough

Ben Clemens: and yes, one thing that is really tricky is trying to figure out whether people are better as individual contributors or managers

Ben Clemens: my wife is a really good manager, imo, and off the clock we spend a ton of time talking about that

Ben Clemens: I’m an individual contributor at heart, so I think I might not be a great fit in this theoretical team

Ben Clemens: I think the one thing that might hold us back is that we have a few too many IC’s

Kirk: Oh the wondering of how top flight athletes can change mechanics and still stay good: you mostly nailed it. The chances are usually small in the actual process that they can keep up, even if it looks like a big change to the layman’s eye. The experience these dudes have also helps them stay good, because at the end of the day they’re still swinging a bat hard or throwing a ball hard.

I think that people would be surprised at how well athletes from other sports would pickup baseball, by the way. It would be rough at first, but if you give someone like DK Metcalf or Steph Curry (two random athletes off the top of my head) a challenge of “become a major leaguer” and then give him all the time and training to focus on that, he’d pull it off.

Ben Clemens: Thanks, internet stranger, but yeah, I’m with you

Ben Clemens: great athletes are just ludicrous

MilwakeeBeerjays: Gunnar Henderson AL MVP 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%?

Ben Clemens: Well, 50% is higher than the ceiling of where I could put this, right off the top

Ben Clemens: I’m not gonna have him ahead of Judge, and there are other players

Ben Clemens: I think I have him around 25%

SkenesMVP2024: There’s been some talk of the Pirates adding 1-2 bats and trying to make a run at the WC.  Does that sound realistic to you, or is their offense too putrid for it to make a difference?

Ben Clemens: you know, that was my snap reaction but I’m gonna give it slightly more thought

Ben Clemens: okay, I’m gonna update it to I think that they should wait until the end of the month and see where things are

Ben Clemens: like if they’re still 3 games out of the WC, and one of the teams ahead of them falls behind htem

Ben Clemens: I think they maybe can? the thing they have going for them is that some of their offensive underperformance is from players I think are good who just haven’t been good so far

Ben Clemens: there’s a difference between that and like, okay 7 of the 9 position guys are filler

Ben Clemens: they definitely need more offense. but at least some of that can come from Cruz continuing to develop, Hayes being just okay instead of bad, that kinda thing

Ben Clemens: that said, I would not be adding now

Ben Clemens: give yourself a month to see if some of those changes are actually happening before deciding

bigtimetimmyjim: what are your thoughts on how effective wisely can be at playing shortstop defense? I feel like he’s been pretty solid so far but I think he came up more as a 2b

Ben Clemens: my thoughts are that I have no clue, but that the Giants need to find out

Ben Clemens: alright, on that note, I had a great time chatting with you all today but I have to go get moving on lunch

Ben Clemens: the guy who asks the lunch question, I didn’t see you today, but delicious bread from a local place with herbed goat cheese

Ben Clemens: and probably a salad after

Ben Clemens: have a great holiday week, everyone