12:00 |
: Chat time chat time, something that rhymes with chat time
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12:00 |
: lime!
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12:00 |
: slime!
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12:00 |
: grime!
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12:00 |
: splat chime!
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12:00 |
: fat dime!
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12:00 |
: If you could ‘relegate’ one MLB franchise, UK soccer-style, and ‘promote’ a minor-league city into MLB, which cities would you choose?
|
12:01 |
: relegate oakland/las vegas, promote Charlotte
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12:01 |
: If you were a hitter and had to pick a percentage where your strikouts would equal your walks, what what you pick? For optimal output or aesthetics? (beyond the outliers around 0% and 50%, though those would be interesting…)
|
12:02 |
: Not sure output, but I don’t like standing around, so 1% walks and strikeouts
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12:02 |
: thoughts on Parker Meadows? Considering stashing him, wondering if you’d prefer him to any of Stowers, hays, Mullins or cowser?
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12:02 |
: I’m not sure he’s obviously superior to them, simply because injury and you don’t realy get compensated for his defesne
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12:03 |
: what percent does Zips give Judge to win the triple crown?
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12:04 |
: Haven’t actually run it, but maybe I will next week!
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12:04 |
: Did the Mariners wait too long to trade Harry Ford he doesn’t seem to have a path in Seattle with Cal entrenched and his prospect shine seems to have dimmed a bit in the last year.
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12:04 |
: It’s not like he’s been awful or anything
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12:05 |
: but there were a lot of questions, so I’m not sure ther was ever a big lucrative deal out there for him
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12:07 |
: Every full MLB season since 2018 has featured at least three 100-loss teams. From 2003-2017 there were zero seasons with three or more 100 loss teams. Is the recent lower floor just a blip, or is there a real shift driving it?
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12:07 |
: I’m not sure the strategy about rebuilding has really changed all tha tmuch
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12:07 |
: What AAA hitting stats / qualities translate the best to the big league level? Which ones “mean” the least?
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12:08 |
: Generally, power and aggression translate best. Really passive players (not a lot of balsl in play, high walk rate) tend to translate poorly, which ZiPS takes into account in translations
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12:08 |
: Should the Mariners look to add a 1B, 3B or OF at the deadline or just roll with what they have?
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12:08 |
: I think they ought to look at the bats available, but it’s hard to say EXACTLY what will be most crucial in two months
|
12:09 |
: If you choked a mime, would they make a sound? Or would they keep to the bit and only motion that they are choking?
|
12:09 |
: A week ago, only Aaron Judge had made it to 4 fWAR. Today, only Aaron Judge has 4 fWAR (now it’s 4.3)
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12:09 |
: He’s a really good player!
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12:09 |
: Is Zips buying into Trent Grisham’s early season success? How many PA’s when a guy has a somewhat established baseline are needed for ZiPS to start weighting a potential breakout?
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12:09 |
: To an extent, ZiPS was never really down on Grisham, so it’s not grumpy about his season
|
12:10 |
: But there’s no X PAs since a breakout isn’t a binary tihng. The larger the breakout, the fewer the PAs needed to see a real long term change
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12:10 |
: That’s why I have a bloated mess of algorithms to sort through it!
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12:10 |
: How worries are we about Yelich?
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12:10 |
: mild-to-moderate
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12:11 |
: “Have mild-to-moderate worry about a baseball player? Ask your doctor if Yipsazepam© is right for you!”
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12:11 |
: Dear Mr. Fangraphs, There are too many projection systems nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.
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12:12 |
: Ideally not ZiPS? I like buying stuff
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12:13 |
: As a Braves fan, how concerned should I be about Spencer Strider. It wasn’t just his velocity, but his breaking pitches lacked depth and bite and his command looked off.
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12:15 |
: Now you need the drug to have moderate-to-severe baseball worry, Pennantotrol© (basebolanum tarate)
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12:16 |
: What’s for lunch?
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12:16 |
: Nothing today!
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12:17 |
: I imagine you’ve seen some of the Veo3 demos. Exciting? Scary? Both?
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12:17 |
: Frightening, but interesting.
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12:17 |
: Change *is* frightening, especially dangerous change. But I’m a believer that when change is coming, you need to do your best to integrate the changes, since changes can’t really be stopped.
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12:18 |
: what’s the best pop song of the 2020s?
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12:18 |
: Now that I couldn’t answer. I wasn’t really a pop song guy at any point, but I’m getting old enough that I’m not really connected with that bit of culture
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12:20 |
: if you ask me about indie folk rock or straight up indie rock or something, I might be able to answer, but I’ll probably be biased towards bands that had cultural relevance 15 years ago
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12:21 |
: Like, I’d probably say Fleet Foxes Can I Believe You
|
12:21 |
: but I’m going to be 47 this month. I’m probably nto the guy to ask these things to, if I was ever
|
12:21 |
: NO! More projections please! MORE!
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12:21 |
: Has Jackson Chourio’s career outlook taken a hit by the offensive profile we’ve seen since he’s been in the majors?
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12:22 |
: I don’t think it’ sa hit, his weakneses have always been well known
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12:22 |
: If you get abducted by a group of mimes, they will do unspeakable things to you.
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12:22 |
: Does ZIPs distinguish between caught looking K’s vs swinging? Are caught looking K’s less projectable?
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12:22 |
: Yes. And it’s complicated
|
12:24 |
: I mixed some basebolanum tarate with a glass of white wine, ended up having lunch with Pete Rose. He ordered the most expensive thing on the menu and skipped out on the bill.
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12:24 |
|
12:24 |
: (sicne there was a Grampa Simpson thing earlier)
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12:25 |
: Are there ‘real’ park factor stats for Sacramento, Tampa, Baltimore yet? How long will it take to get a rough idea? That park in West Sac is looking like a bandbox
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12:26 |
: There’s a lot of noise in park factors, it takes a few years
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12:26 |
: Is Semien just like, bad, now?
|
12:26 |
: I fear he is. At least no longer a star
|
12:26 |
: Who is your favorite player who you’re sure is good but hasn’t proved it yet?
|
12:26 |
: Adley Rutschman 🙂
|
12:26 |
: or is that a 🙁
|
12:27 |
: Who comes out on top in a mascot Royal Rumble? Guaranteed the rally monkey is the first to go.
|
12:27 |
: Do the Mets get Grimace? I think he’d win. Mr. Met is pretty top heavy if they have to use him, so I think it’ dbe easy to get him over the ropes
|
12:28 |
: The Phanatic ought to have fairly low center of gravity
|
12:28 |
: Making the yips drug a benzo is only sensible, good call
|
12:28 |
: The Cubs’ bullpen is nightmare-inducing. What, realistically, can they do at this point in the season? If you were Jed would you call David Robertson, or do you think a 40yo that’s been on the shelf for a quarter of a season is a bad investment? (that was supposed to be sarcastic but now I’m actually wondering)
|
12:29 |
: I’d certainly call up David Robertson. You can only lose money really.
|
12:30 |
: It’s a below-average bullpen and likely to stay one of the teams weaknesses
|
12:30 |
: Middle-aged Dude question: If you had to choose between having a full head of hair that is completely gray or a head of greatly thinning, full-color hair (no dying, rogaine, or toupe), which would you choose? It is the classic Steve Martin vs. Bruce Willis conundrum.
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12:30 |
: I guess the question is whether I have to get gray the color or the natural color that *my* hair changes
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12:31 |
: I definitely have a receding hairline (though not as much as you may think as I’ve always had a bit of a five or sixhead) and a thinning crown
|
12:32 |
: I haven’t had any of my hair hairs change from the slightly reddish dark blonde/light brown it’s been since my teenage years
|
12:32 |
: but if I don’t shave for awhile, I’ll start getting bright white hairs in my beard
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12:33 |
: if I can have the snow white Donald Sutherland hair, I’m down with graying with a full head of hair, even what goes for a full head of hair for me
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12:33 |
: if mousy gray, it’ sa closer call
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12:33 |
: Any ideas on how to fix the Rockies?
|
12:33 |
: Monforts stay far far away
|
12:33 |
: Look, don’t be ashamed. Just say Taylor Swift’s Anti-Hero and move on from the pop songs.
|
12:34 |
: I don’t really know the song. I know Shake it Off because that was playing everywhere for a year. And I know I Knew You Were Trouble mainly because the nerdy reddit meme for a while of someone mashing that weird Brotherman Bill song with it
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12:35 |
:
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12:35 |
: Just like I know Cooking By the Book because of the joke Lil Jon mashup
|
12:36 |
: Like I know the media loves to overblow things and the stats are still very good (just not what’s expected). Last night looked atrocious, struck out in first two at bats without ever taking the bat off his shoulder. What’s up with Soto? Heel turn?
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12:36 |
: Passiveness is an eternal danger for a highly disciplined hitter
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12:37 |
: Who can the Cubs trade for at the deadline because their closer role is still in question?
|
12:37 |
: It REALLY depends on who is avaialble
|
12:38 |
: Like if the ERA is coming down to the peripherals and the O’s are still far out of it, I think they may trade Cano
|
12:38 |
: I think you go full head of graying hair 100% of the time. Not everyone has optimal head shape for baldness, and with white/gray hair you always have the option of going Full Gandalf
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12:39 |
: Anti-Hero is a great storytelling pop song. It has Folksy pop vibes, especially the acoustic version.
|
12:39 |
: I think I’ve just largely aged out of the genre. Like, I’ve bought a ton of albums in the 2020s, but they were all bands I was listening to in 2000 to 2015
|
12:40 |
: like yeah, I’ll buy a new decemberists or new pornographers album just because one is out, but any person my age who isn’t already a fan probably isn’t going to be
|
12:40 |
: Will Max Muncy be on the Dodgers’ roster a year from now?
|
12:40 |
: Yes
|
12:41 |
: unless you mean the other one, which is no
|
12:41 |
: (Want to make sure no loophole)
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12:41 |
: The Eovaldi article a few days ago mentioned research that guys who throw lots of different pitches in any count outperform their stuff. Can that help explain Sugano?
|
12:42 |
: It could, but we don’t have a TON of Sugano starts yet
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12:42 |
: Are you planning to incorporate the new bat-tracking stats into ZiPS in some way?
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12:42 |
: If they improve the model, I’ll add Oma’s spaetzle recipe
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12:42 |
: These new swing path stats are neat but I wonder at their usefulness beyond IDing negative deviations from what made a particular batter successful. There are just too many ways to successfully skin the batting cat…
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12:43 |
: Now, I don’t *hurry* to incorporate new things. A lot of times, something new is largely being captured indirectly
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12:43 |
: And a lot of times, the new thing is more complicated than it looks
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12:43 |
: Is it safe to say now that Vladdy wasn’t beating $500mm on the open market this winter?
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12:43 |
: I don’t believe he was going to, even without a rather meh start
|
12:43 |
: I think the Blue Jays looked at the abyss and thought about trying to re-sign and missing out *again* on a guy they want to pay a lot o fmoney to
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12:43 |
: Every 2026 FA list seems to like Cease over Michael King and I just don’t see it. Who would you rather sign long term?
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12:43 |
: Weirdly, I think King
|
12:44 |
: Given that starting pitchers aren’t expected to go 7-8 innings a start anymore
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12:44 |
: I think keeping pitchers relievers for a while and then moving them to the rotation is going to be a continued thing
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12:45 |
: I absolutely hate the narrative that Juan Soto isn’t worth it.. Reports like he’s gained too much weight, he doesn’t like it New York make me mad. He is still an above average hitter despite him going through a slump. This guy will likely be 150 WRC+ for years to come
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12:45 |
: There’s really no reason to get mad. The Mets and Soto are tied for life, so it should always be about what makes him better
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12:45 |
: Felix Hernandez has a borderline HoF case as a starter. What would ZiPS project his career WAR to be as a reliever? Would he still have been a borderline HoF pitcher, or would it have been an easier yes or easier no?
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12:45 |
: I’m not even positive that he misses on peak. I’m going to have to consider it this fall
|
12:45 |
: I haven’t projected him as a reliever psecifically
|
12:46 |
: Better hitter. Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin.
|
12:46 |
: I think purely as a hitter, Ramirez ha the higher upside
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12:46 |
: who will have more 2026 war, A Barger or LAD Muncy
|
12:49 |
: Quebec
|
12:49 |
: Oh wait, I just thought the answer to the last Q and didn’t actually type it
|
12:50 |
: Sorry, I forget how communication works sometime
|
12:50 |
: I think Muncy. Barger’s actually been solid this year, but I’m not sure solid enough that he grabs a job
|
12:50 |
: if the Dodgers tire of Muncy, he’ll end up a platoon DH somewhere and get good playing time that way
|
12:50 |
: Where would you rank xwOBA overall as an evaluator of a hitter?
|
12:51 |
: These numbers are all solid, but one has to remember that the longer a player outperforms/underperforms these measures, the more likely there’s a deviation in skill from the model
|
12:51 |
: What’s more likely, Conforto recovering from his putrid start, him continuing to scuffle but staying in his spot, or him scuffling and being replaced at the trade deadline?
|
12:51 |
: I think at this stage, he’s largely a stopgap starter/fourth outfielder. It’s been a long time since he was *good*
|
12:52 |
: I mean, he hit SOME last year, but he better since he doesn’t really have any defensive value
|
12:52 |
: Good choice but imo hard to beat the Mollusk
|
12:52 |
: What’s up with Christian Walker? Is he gonna turn it around with all these k’s?
|
12:53 |
: Him I’m cautiously optimistic about. His contact rate isn’t all that different than his career and he’s still hitting things hard
|
12:53 |
: Roengardner kid for real? He’s throwing 100+
|
12:53 |
: Injury prone
|
12:53 |
: Juan Soto has an .803 OPS next to his almost all red Baseball Savant rankings. This is nothing, right?
|
12:53 |
: Probably
|
12:53 |
: I’m losing faith in the Astro’s transparency w/re injuries. O/U number of hands currently attached to Yordan’s body: +/- 1.5?
|
12:53 |
: O’s won last night, so… fixed? Can they do enough to compete this year? Should they?
|
12:53 |
: They CAN, but they really need to have a crazy tear soon
|
12:53 |
: The math is really bad
|
12:53 |
: what if the difference in the RoS version and the UPD version?
|
12:53 |
: RoS is rest of season updated projection
|
12:54 |
: Update is the RoS added to wha’s already banked
|
12:54 |
: How bad is the Bryan Reynolds contract going to look for the Pirates by the end of the year?
|
12:54 |
: Pretty bad as it looks so now
|
12:54 |
: and the Pirates are going to use it as an excuse to not spend on players
|
12:54 |
: Well, an additional one of course
|
12:54 |
: There is no way Skenes get traded right?
|
12:54 |
: I don’t think there is any way he gets traded this yera
|
12:54 |
: What is your confidence level on Mike Elias building a pitching pipeline?
|
12:54 |
: It’s…volatile
|
12:55 |
: Should we be looking more at those 190+ pitch starts that Sasaki threw in high school ? It’s not seeming like this is going to have a happy ending
|
12:55 |
: I think a lot of the damage done to pitchers is pre-professional damage that’s lurking
|
12:55 |
: Not that it would ever happen but with the Skenes trade talk I was thinking about how the Red Sox might be the only team that matches up with the Pirates in a way that could work for both sides. What do you think about Wilyer, Kristian, Roman and Marcello, for Skenes?
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12:56 |
: It’s really hard to trade for Skenes for the simple fact that a fair trade for Skenes is going to be an absurd moving of talent
|
12:56 |
: I love Skenes, but I rather have those four that Skenes, even if we assumed for the sake of argument, that their expected value is exactly equal
|
12:56 |
: I’m just not a put all my eggs in one basket type of guy, especially when it’s a PITCHER
|
12:57 |
: I can’t imagine what you mean by “the longer a player outperforms/underperforms these measures, the more likely there’s a deviation in skill from the model”
|
12:57 |
: heh
|
12:57 |
: I should note that ZiPS is aware, which is why it was higher on Paredes this year than most!
|
12:57 |
: “The math is really bad” the math is fine, the implications for baltimore’s chances… not so great /pedantry
|
12:58 |
: Colorado is on pace for 26 wins. That can’t happen, can it? CAN IT???
|
12:58 |
: It could. They’ve been so lousy that they could play better ball, closer to their talent level, and still beat the white sox
|
12:58 |
: I wish fiscal conservatives still, you know, existed.
|
12:58 |
: So do I
|
12:58 |
: I want to develop a projection system called UMPYASS. Which is basically what happens when OOPSY and Jonah Hill make chili inside a materialized view.
|
12:58 |
: Mandatory cat update!
|
12:59 |
: Cassiopeia is sleeping in her cave. Justianian is sleeping on my office couch as he usually is this time of day
|
12:59 |
: last I saw Constantine, he was asleep on my half-build PC
|
1:01 |
: Not sure what Mercutio’s up to. Last I saw he was hanging out in the Pentapus. He’s doing well as he got his monthly arthritis short earlier this week
|
1:02 |
: He’s not going to be happy when he starts on kidney food next week. On his senior blood panel (he’ll be 17 in August), the SDMA test suggests very early kidney issues, so I’m starting him on the diet immediately.
|
1:02 |
: When would you call up Bubba Chandler?
|
1:02 |
: Now
|
1:02 |
: Jackson Holliday is all of a sudden the highest WAR guy age 21 or younger this season. It seems to be really his defense holding him back right now. Is it that bad, or just unstable numbers at this point?
|
1:03 |
: I’m not worried about it yet. It’s not like he’s Hanley Ramirez out there
|
1:03 |
: he’s young and he advanced through minors very quickly
|
1:04 |
: Can someone give me the numbers on the last 5 games of the braves hitting Righties
|
1:04 |
: Guys, we have the splits leaderboard RIGHT THERE for you!
|
1:04 |
: 309/378/423, wRC+ of 125
|
1:04 |
: YOu dont’ even need to be a member to use it!
|
1:04 |
: (I don’t think)
|
1:05 |
: What happened to MATT DAMON?
|
1:05 |
: Ben Affleck got his own couch
|
1:05 |
: I’m the designated idiot on the bar trivia team that listens to new music. My taste is eclectic enough to not lose my mind every time Ariana Grande squeaks something out into the world.
|
1:05 |
: who do you see in World Series this year?
|
1:05 |
: baseball teams presumably
|
1:05 |
: I’m thinking Tigers/Doders
|
1:05 |
: Dodgers
|
1:05 |
: And don’t sleep on white pepper!
|
1:05 |
|
1:05 |
: I miss being one of the young analytics guys
|
1:06 |
: Dave Cameron and I were both teenagers in the usent days
|
1:06 |
: usenet
|
1:06 |
: How am I just a few years from being 50? I own three pairs of shoes and I’m not sure where I put my one tie
|
1:07 |
: which prospect has widest gap between median outcome and 80th percentile outcome?
|
1:07 |
: Maybe someone like Quinn mathews?
|
1:08 |
: Does ZiPS believe that Mick Abel suddenly has good command?
|
1:08 |
: ZiPS does not
|
1:08 |
: Dan, there was a reddit post a few days ago suggesting that after the WAR switch to XBR certain plays (i.e. the hustle double) may be overcounted. Any new thoughts on this?
|
1:08 |
: I followed up on that post! David’s going to talk to Tango about the best way to unwind any double counting
|
1:08 |
: Dude, don’t give away all the 47 year old secrets! I have 4 pairs of shoes.
|
1:09 |
: You say you play piano and some other band-type brass. If you could choose two other instruments to know how to play (instantly downloaded like on the matrix), which ones would you pick (one has to be a non-weird one)?
|
1:09 |
: Guitar and violin
|
1:09 |
: I’ve been playing piano for more than 40 years
|
1:10 |
: I can credibly play the larger brass instruments (tuba, euphonium, trombone) and I’m passable with trumpet
|
1:11 |
: And I can play clarinet and oboe, and I like playing along to vivaldi concertos on my boxwood tenor recorder
|
1:12 |
: but I don’t play any of violin/cello/viola/bass or guitar, so it would be interestingi and different from the things I normally play
|
1:13 |
: my friend Mike’s dad has crafted violins for 40 years, but he sells them for 15-20K a piece and I probably can’t get THAT Much of a discount
|
1:14 |
That’s what you sound like, Talent Boy. |
1:14 |
: I like playing music!
|
1:14 |
: where/how’d you keep up with all these instruments? i played clarinet in 8th grade
|
1:14 |
: I work from home and have always been musical
|
1:14 |
: I never had the skillset that playing professionally would have been a thing; those people are SUPER talented
|
1:16 |
: I went to my kid’s band concert last night and now I imagine you sitting up there playing Imperial March
|
1:16 |
: is it safe to assume that Steamer use the same process for RoS and UPD?
|
1:17 |
: if definitionally then yes
|
1:17 |
: obviously the process is different
|
1:18 |
: I learned bass guitar when in was a teenager. I was so bad that my girlfriend at the time offered to pay for the prom limo if I would just stop. That was a sweet $100 I saved.
|
1:18 |
: Do you think KC makes SOME sort of move for OF help or are they really pinning it all on current OF + Jac?
|
1:19 |
: I think if they were serious about a move, they would have done it last offseason. GOing into the season with melendez/renfroe as starting corners was malpractice
|
1:19 |
: Oh, there are a few questions about what a pentapus is
|
1:19 |
|
1:19 |
: That’s Justinian, AKA Doctor Pentapus
|
1:19 |
: Oh the Imperial March, that would definitely be my walkup song. Did Harrison Bader ever use that? Has anyone? (even if it is a ripoff of Mars, it is an all-time great)
|
1:19 |
: nto a lot of orchestral walk up music
|
1:20 |
: I’d use the start of the second movement of Prokofiev’s Scythian Suite as my walkup music
|
1:20 |
:
|
1:21 |
: No way I’m clicking on a link called ‘pentapus’. Nice try, HR.
|
1:21 |
: Personal feeling is that Imperial March would work better as a closer’s entrance music.
|
1:21 |
: I think the problem with that is the Empire lost in the final act
|
1:21 |
: That’s inauspicious for a closer
|
1:22 |
: thanks on the ROS & UPD explanations. How often do you update the RoS?
|
1:22 |
: The Scythian Suite sounds like battle music for EU4! I’m ready to invade Anatolia now
|
1:22 |
: The simpler in-season model is updated every morning automatically
|
1:23 |
: What I call “full fat” ZiPS is batch-run in the middle of every month, and whenever else I want to do it for a specific article I’m working on, if need be
|
1:23 |
: To fully run ZiPS takes a little over a day for two PCs running simultaneously
|
1:23 |
: Does it bother you as much as it bothers me that MLB calls automatic doubles “ground-rule doubles” on gameday? They’re different things!
|
1:23 |
: I didn’t think of that!
|
1:24 |
: On that note, it’s time for me to depart
|
1:24 |
: thanks all for coming! and see you next time
|
1:24 |
can’t you just let the guy who came up with it run it? ; p |
1:24 |
: there’s no power in the oubliette
|
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com