Dodgers Return James Paxton to a Familiar Spot

In the abstract, you can never have too much pitching, but managing 26- and 40-man rosters means dealing with practical limits instead of theoretical ones. Last Monday, in the midst of a week in which they would need to call up one starting pitcher and activate two more from the injured list, the Dodgers designated James Paxton for assignment. On Friday, they dealt the 35-year-old lefty to the Red Sox — the team he pitched for last season, and rehabbed from Tommy John surgery with the year before — in exchange for infielder Moises Bolivar, a 17-year-old Venezuela native playing in the Dominican Summer League.

Dogged by so many injuries throughout his 11-year major league career that he’s never topped 29 starts or qualified for the ERA title, Paxton has at least been healthy enough to remain in a rotation all season; his 18 starts and 89.1 innings both rank third on the Dodgers. He did a solid job for Los Angeles at times, but the returns had diminished in recent weeks. After allowing just two runs over an 18-inning span from June 11–24 — lowering his ERA to 3.39, albeit with a 4.78 FIP — Paxton was rocked for nine runs and 12 hits in four innings by the Giants on June 30, beginning a 17.2-inning, 17-run spiral that included 12 walks and three homers over his final four starts in blue. With that run of runs, he finished his stint with the Dodgers with a 4.43 ERA, a 4.96 FIP, a 4.84 xERA, and 0.3 WAR.

Interestingly enough, the last of Paxton’s starts was against the Red Sox in Los Angeles last Sunday. In five innings, Paxton walked four and allowed four hits and three runs while striking out seven. Since it was his 18th start of the season, it meant that he maxed out the $7 million worth of incentives in his one-year deal on top of his $4 million base salary and $3 million signing bonus; he received $2 million for making the Opening Day roster, $1 million for being on the roster on April 15, $600,000 apiece for reaching the 6-, 8-, 10-, 12-, and 16-start milestones, and then $1 million for the 18th. Thus the Red Sox are only paying the prorated share of his base salary, about $1.4 million.

The Dodgers gave Paxton nearly two-thirds of a season to show them what he could do, and understandably, the team figured it could do better. The DFA move coincided with the call-up of 25-year-old righty River Ryan, their top pitching prospect, to make his major league debut. Ryan filled a rotation spot for which the Dodgers had most recently used Brent Honeywell, whom they had selected off waivers from the Pirates the day before, and before that Bobby Miller, who struggled so mightily in his four starts after coming off the injured list that he was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City (it’s not going well there either).

At that point the Dodgers’ rotation bore little resemblance to the one the team envisioned pitching them to a championship, but by later in the week, a stronger unit began to take shape. On Wednesday, the team activated Tyler Glasnow, who had been sidelined for 18 days by lower back tightness but who still leads the team with 19 starts and 114 innings. On Thursday, they activated Clayton Kershaw, who had yet to pitch this season after November surgery to repair the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. For the moment, Ryan, Glasnow, and Kershaw are joined by rookies Justin Wrobleski and Gavin Stone, the latter of whom has been the staff savior with his 3.34 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 107.2 innings, the team’s second-highest total. Between Stone, Yamamoto, Wrobleski, Ryan, the recently-optioned Landon Knack, and the now-injured Kyle Hurt, the team’s 47 starts by rookies is second in the majors behind the Giants.

The Dodgers hope that at some point Miller, Walker Buehler, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto can rejoin the starting five. Miller’s struggles have followed a nearly 10-week absence due to right shoulder inflammation; on the heels of an impressive rookie season, he’s carrying an 8.07 ERA and 6.28 FIP in 29 innings. Buehler, who was slow-walked in his return from his second Tommy John surgery, returned to the majors on May 6 and made eight starts with a 5.84 ERA and 6.04 FIP before being placed on the injured list with right hip inflammation; he just began a rehab assignment at Oklahoma City. Yamamoto, the team’s second-biggest free agent addition of the past winter, went on the injured list with what was initially reported as triceps tightness after lasting just two innings in his June 15 start. Transferred to the 60-day IL after being diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain, he’ll be eligible to return in mid-August.

It’s telling that amid so much uncertainty — recent injuries, subpar comebacks, and comparative inexperience — the Dodgers decided Paxton should be the odd man out. But even beyond his superficially unimpressive numbers, there was cause for concern. After making just six starts from 2020–22 due to a flexor strain and then Tommy John surgery, he made 19 starts totaling 96 innings for Boston last year, posting a 4.50 ERA and 4.68 FIP; he had a 3.34 ERA and 4.08 FIP before his final three starts, but right knee inflammation factored into some ugly abbreviated appearances before ending his season in early September. At least he was fooling hitters, but this year, not so much:

Woof. Per Statcast, Paxton’s whiff rates on most of his offerings have fallen precipitously. For his four-seamer, the drop is from 21.7% to 14.6%, for his changeup it’s from 46.7% to 31.8%, and for his cutter, from 33.1% to 13%. He’s more or less mothballed that last pitch in favor of his knuckle curve, his most effective offering and one that still has a 35.4% whiff rate, down just a bit from last year’s 37.6%. Relatedly, he’s lost two miles per hour off his four-seamer (from 95.2 to 93.2) and nearly two ticks on his cutter and changeup as well. One look at the pitch-modeling stats, and you could be forgiven for thinking he’s got nothing left:

The Red Sox, having just gotten a look at Paxton, must believe they can fix him, and given the success pitching coach Andrew Bailey has had in his first season with the team, they could be right. Under Bailey and new director of pitching Justin Willard, Red Sox starters finished the first half ranked fifth in the American League in ERA (3.63) and fourth in FIP (3.78), but since the All-Star break, they’re 14th in the former (5.95) and dead last in the latter (5.91).

Brayan Bello has been the weak link overall, with a 5.27 ERA and 4.56 FIP, and both Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta have experienced waning effectiveness after strong opening months, with Crawford posting a 4.38 ERA and 5.26 FIP since the start of May, and Pivetta a 5.05 ERA and 4.02 FIP over the same span. For now, however, it appears that righty Cooper Criswell will be moved to the bullpen and used “in leverage spots and long relief,” according to manager Alex Cora. At the very least, Paxton — who will start Tuesday against the Mariners — gives the Red Sox a left-handed presence in a rotation that has been all righty save for a couple of opener-length turns by reliever Brennan Bernardino. The bullpen has been scuffling lately; in their seven games from July 19–26, they blew a lead in the seventh inning or later six times, and understandably, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is on the hunt for further help.

Said Breslow of the addition of Paxton:

“[Paxton is a] guy with a proven track record on this team and in this division [who is] left-handed. [He] checked a lot of boxes… We didn’t want to walk out of the deadline without having added a starting pitcher. So, glad that we have done that, especially at this point, but we’ll continue to look.”

As for Bolivar, the Red Sox signed him out of Palo Negro in January for a $25,000 bonus. Listed at an even six feet and 175 pounds, he turned 17 on July 8. He hit .270/.364/.423 with three homers in 136 PA for the Red Sox Blue team in the DSL while mainly playing third base, where he made 10 errors in 23 games. Per the above linked Boston Globe piece, one evaluator “praised his high contact rate and ability to hit the ball with authority.” Here’s how Eric Longenhagen described Bolivar, who has since moved to the Dodgers Mega team in the DSL:

Moises Bolivar is a power-hitting flier from the DSL who needs to work on his throwing accuracy and plate discipline. He’s physically projectable and already has a fair bit of power and barrel feel, but as a third base fit (who needs work there), he’s going to have to really rake to profile, and his swing and chase need polish if he’s going to. He’s the sort of prospect who’d typically be listed at the very bottom of our prospect lists as an honorable mention player.

With two days still to go before the deadline, this almost certainly isn’t the last move for either the Red Sox or Dodgers, both of whom still seek upgrades for both ends of their pitching staff. The Dodgers, in particular, are still looking to add “an impact-type arm” according to general manager Brandon Gomes, with Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal, and Jack Flaherty among the reported targets. We’ll find out whom they land soon enough.