Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/18/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, welcome back to another Friday prospect-y chat. It’s a perfect day here in Tempe. Let’s roll through your questions as I prep for the Dodgers list.

ransofast: do you think chase burns will be pitching in cincinnati in august/september?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a good chance, yes. I picked them to win the division in part because they’ve got such a great combination of pitching depth and impact waiting around in Louisville and Chattanooga, I think they’ll have the incentive to promote him pretty aggressively and he has the innings foundation to work deep into the season.

Buff: You’ve generally been low man on Robby Snelling. Anything in his strong start, increased velo to bump him up a bit?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s sitting 93 now, so it’s not like it’s a huge bump in which he suddenly has plus velo or anything. Changeup looks okay. Still more 45 type for me rather than an impact guy. Big league rotation piece, though.

David: It’s only been 4 innings across two outings, but Ryan Sloan’s stuff is seems very real. Certainly three years away from the majors but where is his biggest area to improve? Control/Command?

Eric A Longenhagen: The command piece, yes. And yes, two innings per outing isn’t gonna give us a great read on what his stuff is like for six innings at a time, 30 starts a year. He’s good, but it’ll take all year for him to check the “stamina” box.

MF Luder: Who comes up and has impact first, Brandon Sproat or Samuel Basallo?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Sproat, right? Orioles have a pretty good catcher and DH, Basallo’s elbow barking, no reason to rush him unless you have multiple injuries at 1B/DH and just need a bat up there. Sproat all it might take is the big leaguer who goes on the same day as him getting dinged up.

Refugee: Just wanted to say thank you for doing these chats, and that I appreciate recent reports have included a point of reference for international prospects (ex: this pitcher would be top 30-50 in the draft).

Eric A Longenhagen: De nada, I think context is super useful anywhere you can put it.

Blerg: No longer a prospect but Ben Rice is raking. His bat speed is up it seems. Real improvement you think?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, looks like I’ll end up being low on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: Who knows how long his window of productivity will be, he’s older, etc etc…but he’s built great, seems coachable, they’ve limited his role enough that he’s thriving in it rather than overwhelmed by having to catch. Working out nice, they should roll with it even when Stanton is healthy.

Jason: Ivan Brethowr has entirely changed his swing this season. What do you make of these changes and do you think his improvement in K% is sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice pull by you, like that they’re tweaking things there because he’s a big, physical guy with some upside. He’s still pretty long in there, whiffing as much as he’s making contact so far and lots of oppo contact.. I’d be in wait-and-see mode yet, but his start is definitely positive.

Maddoning: Should the Cubs be worried about Matt Shaw, or is this just a re-set?  What’s your take?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t sweat it yet, it’s so tough to hit in the big leagues, plenty of guys get their ass handed to them at first.

Guest: Luke Keaschall gets the call today for the Twins. The Twins didnt seem to let him have a run in the OF because of his TJ surgery, yet. What does his defensive role look like right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Below avg 2B and DH at the moment. They need a spark, it’s fine to roll the dice a little bit. It’s not like Eddy Julien can pick it or anything.

Resolution: If you were Richard Lovelady, would you go by Dick?

Eric A Longenhagen: You know I would. My grandfather was Dick Longenhagen, dude.

Stick Figga: What’re your thoughts on Ramon Ramirez in KC?

Eric A Longenhagen: Super fun pull power catcher with hit tool risk, needs defensive polish. High risk high reward type.

Guest: Arjun Nimmala’s cut his K rate down to 23%. Only 10 games so far but are you buying a step forward in that regard?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too soon to put stock in rate stats like that, but it’s good he’s not K’ing a ton.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: How do you and your team account for the fact that the ball used before AAA isn’t the same as the MLB ball? Do you just have larger error bars? How does that work for teams that have AAA affiliates in the PCL where numbers are generally suspect anyway?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have, say, some kind of across-the-board adjustment I’m making to their xwOBA or anything like that, I just think a healthy dose of skepticism is always good and there are just sooo many variables that it’s impossible to isolate any one thing.

Paulie_Eff: realistic projections for Andrew Painter for 2025?  I have him stashed in a Minor League slot, but there are plenty of other prospects I could switch hm out for.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think they’ll promote him unless they know he’s gonna be awesome. Keep him stashed, you wanna win the league and that’s the high-ceiling play.

Guest: Jesus Made has struck out a lot more than he has in the past (DSL vs A ball, small sample I know). Do you think this year is more representative of his hit tool/approach or do you expect him to get better?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a stud

Sam: What are you seeing out of Brandon Clarke

Eric A Longenhagen: Monster velo, needs polish, he was a good pick and they’ll make him good.

MF Luder: Can you fill in the blank? “Braden Montgomery reminds me of…”

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I have an obvious comp there, pretty singular type of guy both in terms of his career arc to this point and his toolset for a switch hitter.

Jay: Please give me hope that I might be able to watch either of my teams (Pirates fan living in Denver) ever develop an offense… Is it as simple as bad coaching for both of these org’s inability to develop any impact bats in the last 5 years despite years of plus draft grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Pirates need an owner willing to spend more than Nutting has. I’m not saying you have to be the Dodgers, or even the Diamondbacks, but this is embarrassing. The Rockies idk what to tell you.

Blerg: Seen much of Kellon Lindsey? Stronger?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stronger yes. Defense no bueno.

Emilio Bonifacio: Feel like Dean Curley is being underrated in this class a little as someone who seems like a high probability bat professionally – is the defensive projection on him THAT bad where he may be 1B only?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is a problem, yeah. I don’t think it’ll get *that* far where he’s a 1B, but I do think he’s more likely a 1B than a SS.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s more like a late 1st guy

Dan in TX: Otto Kemp up for Bohm this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Kemp could have some big league utility but he’s not remotely as talented as Bohm.

Hopeful Person: Do you think Noah Schultz gets a cup of coffee this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, they have zero incentive to do that

Some kinda Mook: If Meidroth’s hit tool is a 60/65, then what is Baumann’s article-titling tool?

Eric A Longenhagen: 80, so glad that guy’s on our team

Kevin: Dakota Jordan has started off strong in A ball. For someone so toolsy, what signs do you want to see in his development this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna see him not strike out a ton throughout a second half at Eugene, and during a cup of coffee in Richmond at the end of the year

Eric A Longenhagen: A ball is beneath all SEC guys, get him out of there unless you’re scared he’ll flop

Guest: Zebby Matthews upside worth stashing now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s good

Eric A Longenhagen: idk the structure of your league, i’m streaming guys Luis Ortiz and Edward Cabrera in mine, I don’t need to stash hm

Rick: Is the start to the A+ season for Laz Montes something to be excited about – or just SSS? Has improved all his numbers at the plate thus far and is really young…

Eric A Longenhagen: Whiffing as much as he’s put balls in play, contact rate a little south of 70%… folks needs to stop putting stock into surface level stats at Everett, please please please for everyone’s (my) sanity

Eric A Longenhagen: and he *might* be good, it’s just that the only thing in Everett smaller than their ballpark is their airport

Ryan: if Lawlar gets the call while Marte is out do you think he sticks and worth rostering?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wouldn’t be a priority for me

Bob: Yophery Rodriguez is continuing his nice start as a 19 yr old in Hi-A with Boston. Do you think he can be a guy whose sum of all parts is greater than you’d think guy with a bit more ceiling than you might think from the individual tools?

Eric A Longenhagen: More of a part time look for me

Jay: Will Bleis ever be able to harness that bat speed and be a big impact player or is he more of a defense first 4th OF type at this point in his evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s frustrating in most facets and it bums me out

Austin: You had Gilberto Batista in your prospects of note section with mediocre stuff. Last night he touched 96 and has yet to allow a run this season. Any improvements?

Eric A Longenhagen: He touched 96 but he’s sitting 92-93 and his fastball has generated one swing and miss in three starts. MLB average fastball velocity is 94.4. His cutter/slider is playing pretty well, though. He’s a prospect, but let’s try to properly understand MLB average.

Steve: How soon would you call up Horton at this point? Was 96/97 again. Walks look bad on paper but he was around the zone. Maybe 1 or 2 more starts and see how he holds up at 80+ pitches?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still early enough that you have to prioritize tour pitching depth. Adding Horton to the 40 means you lose someone else. Feels okay to give the guys already on the roster some time to get their footing. If a guy ends up on the 60-day and it frees up a spot, go for it while Horton is healthy.

Chris: Do you think Jurrangelo Cijntje will end up starting right-handed every 5 days and also throw another 40-50 innings per year left-handed out of the bullpen? Will he even be good enough from both sides to do it at the MLB level?

Colt Keith: You seeing anything in Keith’s work at the plate that’s preventing him from tapping into the plus-plus raw power grade you gave him? Anything mechanically and/or approach-wise that’s contributing to his negative launch angles on breaking & offspeed stuff this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Swing cuts downward, has been this way for a while.

BJ: With the complex league starting in half a month, who are some of your favourite sleeper prospects to monitor at the level

Eric A Longenhagen: Gabriel Rodriguez

GA Blood: I’ve been giving some thought to the term “Ace”. I would never expect a prospect to be accurately described as a future ace (even Skenes had some question marks to cross that barrier, I think), but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen. But given how unlikely I think it is I wonder if I would recognize it in a prospect when I see it. Are there certain criteria where if you’d check them all off you end up thinking a guy has a medium outcome of acehood? Stamina obviously. Command has to be a plus plus? Multiple plus plus pitches? More regular plus pitches?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s look at the guys I’d consider present-day Aces:

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff wise, he has I’d say three 60s and a 70, elite durability with 200 ish innings three of last four years, walk rate in the 5-6% area

Eric A Longenhagen: Healthy Gerrit Cole is like 80 slider, everything else plus…walks rates around 6%

Eric A Longenhagen: If you wanted to argue for Cease up here I’d be okay with that. Skenes and Hunter Greene are encroaching

Eric A Longenhagen: I thnk that’s kind of it

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure anyone will have a “median” outcome like that, even Skenes added a new pitch after the draft that has become his most-used weapon, it wasn’t like he was fully formed

Bing Bong: Do you watch anime? You seem like the kind of guy who might. If so, do you have any recs outside of like the major ones (e.g. Cowboy Bebop, Eva, etc.)? I find your taste in media interesting

Eric A Longenhagen: No really

Eric A Longenhagen: it was more my brother’s jam. I’ve mostly got sports on.

Eric A Longenhagen: my ex wife, too. we had crunchyroll for a while

Eric A Longenhagen: I was a Godzilla kid

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok everyone, time for me to run. Thanks for coming this week and enjoy your weekend.