Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 5/30/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from the Cardinals backfields in Florida. I’m getting started a few minutes early so I can focus on the game a little sooner, as we’re about to get underway. Plus, there are already a ton of questions in the queue.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hotspotting, so apologies if things are spotty, internet-wise.

Eric A Longenhagen: In any case, thans for being here.

Guest: Any advice on how to get into/improve scouting abilities? Any resources that have been imperative in your learning?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would read Jason Parks’ chapters in the second edition of Extra Innings, I would read Dollar Sign on the Muscle, Future Value, and go see bad baseball at your local colleges.

Dallas: What’s the balance between actual production vs. K rates? I look at guys like Esmerlyn Valdez and Konnor Griffin, each have performed admirably this season and have up arrows, however both of their K rates are relatively high. Is the production legit or is the K rates red flags for long term success?

Eric A Longenhagen: It can be both. I don’t think a high K% is always necessarily a “red flag”, which I associated with bustdom. It adds risk, volatility but isn’t damning on its own…

Eric A Longenhagen: In those guys’ cases, Griffin has a 75% contact rate so far this year, Valdez is closer to 70% even. That’s a more granular, reliable data point than the K%. You can sort the FG leaderboard to see how the MLB distro looks, 75% is a shade below average but not awful.

Sam: Luis Morales… becoming what you hoped he would?

Eric A Longenhagen: His performance so far makes me feel good about staying on him for the reasons I did (guys built like that, who move like that tend to pan out, become something impactful) but you’re not really right or wrong until these guys have had five-ish years in the bigs.

Early afternoon beerman: Does Jarred Kelenic ever get his groove back?  (Feel free to lie to me.)

Eric A Longenhagen: Enough to be useful in a platoon capacity? Sure. Is he making All Star teams? No.

Ryan: Is David Davalillo dominating with just 1 pitch? I’ve heard rumor of a velo spike. Where do you stand on his SP/RP projection?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have him with four pitches. Was 94-97 for me this spring, been more 92-95 so far during the regular season. Two plus breaking balls. He’s good. Rangers list coming next week btw.

Guest: Can you elaborate/rank on some BOS pitchers in Early, Monegro and Paez?

Eric A Longenhagen: My instincts are Early are that he’s a mood multi-inning reliever. Feel for location is not all that starter-y, though his pitch mix is. I know his walk rate is low but he’s more of a bully than a craftsman or surgeon…

Eric A Longenhagen: Monegro has refined his approach and is now that guy who dumps his slider into the top of the zone for strikes and then elevates his fastball for misses. It’s a pretty violent mechanical look, all kinds of trunk tilt, head whack… I’m inclined to think he’s a reliever, too, bu a good one because he slider quality is a 70.

Eric A Longenhagen: Paez is hurt and has the most vulnerable fastball of this group but he best touch and feel for command and two plus secondaries.

Ken: With elbow inflammation and then a quad injury, should the A’s strongly consider moving JT Ginn to the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you start him as long as you can, he still has all of his options left. Unless you’re contending and think a bullpen move gives you an impact guy back there, you wanna preserve your overall depth.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Which draft prospect has the most variable outlook based on where they land?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Seth Hernandez. Getting the fastball shape into the right spot and dialing in his command are the two dev variables there. Do both and he’s a monster.

Ryan: Could Braxton Bragg see Baltimore this season? Is there any reason for Baltimore to even consider this? His development will surely be more valuable than any wins he could get the team – they’ve dug too deep a hole, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think your qualifier is on point. If they view things as salvageable at some point (and this applies to anyone in the minors who might be one of their best dozen arms in the org) you might get aggressive and promote the guy, but if you’re out of contention, you do not.

See more Butts: How good is Ian Seymour?  And when will he get to prove it?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s good, Uncle Tony. Again, delivery is hideous but he’s thrown strikes. A no. 4/5 type starter on a contender.

Jeremy: Will Painter be in the Phillies bullpen or rotation in the playoffs?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think we know yet, this is just the kind of thing that’ll play out over time. Injuries between now and the end of the season will be more likely to dictate that than anything to do with talent. In the bullpen he could be K-Rod, or he could be Jobe. Turn the October lights on and these kids could go either way.

Ryan: How reliable are the contact rates Fangraphs reports on player pages in Rookie ball? There are guys with high whiff percentages and loud numbers, which I’m not used to seeing at higher levels. Is calibration inconsistent at such a low level, or is it an example of guys feasting on subpar stuff often enough to inflate their stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re not correct because, depending on the setting, what gets marked as a swinging strike or looking strike might be automated. For instance, if you strike out swinging, the MLB auto stringer gives he player three swinging strikes in the at-bat. I’ve asked Sean about scrubbing that from the leaderboards but isolating that stat and leaving the other stuff is not feasible from a web developing standpoint.

Eric A Longenhagen: So just ignore those. I’m sorry, it’s not ideal, and hopefully at some point MLB will have more accurate, pitch by pitch data for those levels soon and it won’t be an issue anymore.

PJ: Handelfry Encarnacion didn’t crack your Brewers list. I always perk up with Brewers international guys, especially given that legendary 2024 class that he’s a part of. Is he just off to a good start but more of a 35 long term? Or room for more?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s gonna ponchada a ton, but has above average bat speed.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d almost always rather have the guy closer to paydirt in fantasy.

Refugee: Initial thoughts on the 2026 draft, especially for teams drafting 1-10? The Gerth article from February was a nice primer.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Lebron kid at ‘Bama will be up there. More than that I want to take this opportunity to congratulate David on his new job with the Red Sox. He was hired this month and is moving to Boston.

Eric A Longenhagen: We wish him well, and are not surprised that teams were on him not long after he hopped on with us. He’s been a pleasure to work with for both me and the editors.

Guest: With the DSL starting soon, who are some guys to watch out for

Eric A Longenhagen: Just the kiddos who got a bunch of money. I’ll be snacking on Rangers streams all next week. Everyone should go sit on Elian Pena early too. The Mets broadcast their games down there and he’s a bigger kid who should move quickly if he actually hits.

Rainel Rodriguez: Any EVs or contact % you can share? And any chance he is athletic to play somewhere other than C as that bay at surface level looks to have great upside.

Eric A Longenhagen: My last pull of data was too early to have a reliable sample on that score, but I’ve been with him this week and can confirm he’s a dude. He hit a ball 109 the other day, he’s throwing well, he can hit and has power. He’s not physically projectable, he’s a heavier guy bordering on bulky, but he’s super athletic for his size. I love him.

Afterthought: How do you contextualize batted ball / defense dependent outcomes for college pitchers? This is mostly a Tyler Bremner question.

Eric A Longenhagen: Eh, just scout the athlete and his stuff and aptitude. There are so many variable in college ball that play with outcomes, bats, defenses, parks, league pitching quality, transfer portal, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: Look at Mike Villani, for instance. He’s not amazing or anything, but he’s a prospect. Threw 27 career D-I innings.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s good, did Kiley and Lance post their video yet. Velo is up, mid-90s.

Bobby Peru: Catching a Somerset Patriots-Akron RubberDucks game this weekend. Can you give me a handful of guys to keep an eye on outside of the obvious ones like Genao and Lombard?

Eric A Longenhagen: Watson and Ingle for Akron, Spenny and Flores (mostly for defense) on Somerset

Nuxie: How has tyson lewis looked.Tyson Lewis or Konnor griffin?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like it’s going to take him a while to learn how to hit good pitching. I’d take Griffin, not particularly close. Lewis is tooled out, though.

Guest: Would you say the Bluejays are one of the most improved farm systems?

Eric A Longenhagen: Improved? Or initially underrated?

JacobM: Is David Shields fast start at A ball primarily due to advanced command of underwhelming stuff being too much for young hitters?  How much of this can we expect as he climbs, acknowledging SSS caveats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. I don’t think he’s the kind of projectable athlete I’m betting will add velo, pretty lukewarm on him in a vacuum,  and KC hasn’t shown they can coax more velo out of these guys.

Fred whitfield: This guy villaini the reds got for diaz-anything there or did the reds get hosed again?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s alright. I added him to the board, you can go read my report over there.

Eric A Longenhagen: They weren’t gonna get a top 100 guy for him or anything, he’s preforming like a fringe roster guy.

Joan d’Flyball: Franklin Arias has been absolutely lights out even after his promotion to A+.  What, if any, are some areas to watch in his development? Is everything lining up to stay at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah put on the tape this morning and he looks awesome on defense. Red Sox list looms for me, he could be a big mover if I think the hit tool piece is real. It certainly looks that way on paper, to this point I haven’t been sold that it’s *this* good mechanically.

Ken: So Denzel Clarke at the plate. It’s not just bad? They have to invent a new word to describe it, right? How can someone put up perfectly cromulent numbers in AAA and then just nothing in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, happens constantly. Swing length plus big league stuff can equal a binary “no”

FBP: What are your views on Jordan Lawler. He was just sent down by Arizona and seems blocked Trade fodder?

Eric A Longenhagen: He might not be good. Super tightly wound lower body, some spectacular stuff on defense and some things that are frustrating. Barrel feel is mediocre, but has rare shortstop power. Does he feel to hit lag behind because he’s missed tine with injury, or is it just bad?

David Wiers: Aidan Miller is still drawing walks and running, but any concern over the uptick in K%? Flirting with 30% in his second look at AA pitching.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not worried yet, he’s still just a kid there.

Cynic: I’m a casual looking to get my fears removed here, but reading the prospect reports on Anthony are making me kind of skeptical? The plate discipline stuff reminds me of Moncada (is he selective or just actually passive), the swing plane questions from the current FG 2025 report seem concerning? Is this more like a Moncada situation here where looking back it’ll be like the red flags were there, or is this more like Skenes where everybody gets nitpicked a little and it won’t be an issue in the bigs? Guess I’m just asking for a vibe check.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nitpicked because he’s the top guy. We have to explain why he isn’t Trout or Acuna or something like that. Too much lefty bat speed to worry about the little things.

Mike: Patiently waiting for the Red Sox prospect list. When is that slated on your schedule and any prospects you are moving up those rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Finishing the orgs that train in AZ (TEX, SD, SEA) then hitting the stretch in FL, where I currently am scouting and laying track.

ceasar: Luke Dickerson… so hot right now. What did you think of him coming into the draft? Tiny sample, but mashing at Low A.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think here’s a little more whiff versus elevated fastballs than I’m comfortable with. He’s a good prospect, but I’m not ready to hyperstuff him or anything like that.

Jackie Daytona: Fun article from the Athletic on Skenes trades….is Skenes for Horton / Shaw / Alcantara even?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol wut?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on lemme google this to see who wrote it

Eric A Longenhagen: Totally unsurprised

Bencle Mens: Fangraphs’ non-Eric prospect writers might be the most poached position in baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a double-edged sword for sure, and the next two months will be painful for your boy, but honestly short of cloning myself this is bound to happen if Meg and I are doing our jobs and adding good people. And we’re glad, we’d both rather act as a springboard for people’s dreams, ya know?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s only Meg and I who *can’t* be poached for the train to keep rolling, we basically have our own language at this point.

Mastodon Zimmer: Is Franklin Arias still a 35+ prospect?  His batting line certainly looks good since being promoted, and by all accounts is a legit shortstop.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s a dude, my report is outdated from last cycle and will soon change.

Fish: What do you think caused everyone (I remember you at one point had him just outside top 100) to drastically overrate Berry? He’s struggled to even be an average hitter the last few years

Eric A Longenhagen: overvaluing SEC performance at the start of a juiced bat era. Bat speed was never there.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m glad to have moved off him quickly (same with Condon, I’m betting, though his issues are different) but obviously if I’m running a draft room that’s no bueno.

Eric A Longenhagen: Has a shot, his swing makes me bite my lip

David: Thoughts on Adrian Del Castillo? Is he blocked, or does he hit enough to change positions?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pavin is hitting, too

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, buen preguntas again this week. I’m gonna go so I can focus on this game as I only have a couple more days out here. Mets and Marlins have good arms down here and I’m glad to have spent the time, no matter how much I’m sweating through my shirts. Thanks to the couple of you who have seen me out in the wild the last little bit and said what’s up. Padres and Rangers lists are next, then Seatle. Talk to y’all next week.