FanGraphs Power Rankings: Opening Day 2025

Welcome back, baseball! Opening Day is here. Most teams have reason to be optimistic this time of year, but there are a handful of clubs facing significant hurdles as the season gets underway. Below, I’ll layout what the best- and worst-case scenario looks like for every team in 2025.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or the MLB predictions at the now defunct FiveThirtyEight, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these Opening Day rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections — which are powered by a 50/50 blend of the 2025 Steamer and ZiPS projections, and RosterResource’s playing time estimates — and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. The two-game Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs has been taken into account in these rankings. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the pre-spring training run of the Power Rankings I did back in February.

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The Dodgers have done everything they can to ensure they’ll end this season as the first repeat champion since the 1999-2000 Yankees. The expectations are high; it’s World Series or bust for this roster. But the playoffs being what they are — Los Angeles almost got bumped from the postseason in the Division Series just last year — it wouldn’t be so surprising to see this team falter in October if they run into the wrong opponent or get cold at the wrong time. And then there are the injury concerns surrounding their superstars. Mookie Betts’ spring illness has taken a toll on his body. Freddie Freeman played through a badly sprained ankle and a broken rib last October; the former required offseason surgery, while the latter has given him a little trouble this spring. And while their rotation in stacked, many of their starters have long injury histories. This team is better equipped to handle the loss of their stars than any other in baseball, which also makes their floor a lot higher than any other team’s, but let’s not be hasty in assuming they bought their way to another championship this offseason. But if their guys stay healthy and produce to their potential? Look out.

The Braves already endured what was hopefully the worst possible scenario last year and still managed to win 89 games and slip into the playoffs. Like the Dodgers above them, their floor is higher than almost any other team thanks to oodles of talent up and down their roster. The health of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider will have a huge impact on how high this team will fly. If they come back no worse for wear, and if guys like Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies can bounce back after down 2024s, Atlanta has as good a shot at toppling the Dodgers as anyone in the National League.

The trio of NL teams in this tier are better than most, but they aren’t without their flaws. The Phillies’ success hinges on how well their aging core holds up for another year. They’ve got the talent and experience to win a championship, though the projections see them as clearly a step behind the top two teams in the NL. Unfortunately, Father Time is still undefeated, and Philadelphia doesn’t have the same depth that Los Angeles or Atlanta does. The Phillies’ ceiling is high, but they’ve got a lot more room to fall should age or injury catch up to any of their stars.

The addition of Juan Soto and the re-signing of Pete Alonso arguably gives the Mets the strongest lineup in their division. They shouldn’t have any trouble scoring runs, so the real question is whether or not they’ll have enough pitching to support their offense. Kodai Senga is supposedly healthy, but he threw fewer than 30 innings last year between his one regular season start, his minor league rehab stint, and his three postseason appearances. Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are both starting the season on the IL, and there are still questions about whether or not Clay Holmes can successfully make the leap to the rotation. It’ll probably be a bit of a bumpy road until their rotation is healthier in a few months, but this team is talented enough to weather this early season storm.

The Diamondbacks suffered through their worst case last year, winning 89 games only to miss out on the playoffs because Atlanta snuck in. They scored the most runs in baseball by a pretty wide margin thanks to a blistering second half, but they’ll need to find greater consistency throughout the season to make it back to October. That’ll mostly come down Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte producing at their peaks, and Josh Naylor capably replacing Christian Walker at first base. The pitching staff looks stronger with the addition of Corbin Burnes, but the rotation dealt with a ton of injuries last year. They’ll be hard pressed to chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, but a top Wild Card spot is absolutely in play if all their stars align.

The American League is a mess. Eleven teams have playoff odds ranging between 63% and 38%, and no team is projected to win more than 86 games. This tier has the six teams that look to be the strongest out of that bunch, but every division is wide open for the taking, as are the top two seeds.

The Yankees may have already slipped into their worst-case scenario after losing Gerrit Cole for the year to an elbow injury. Combined with the injuries to Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, the Bombers have very quickly burned through their starting rotation depth before the season even starts. Despite all that, the Yanks are still projected to have the best record in the AL, though their margin for error is a lot slimmer now. If they can overcome these hurdles, they’ve got as good a shot as anyone to represent the AL in the World Series for the second year in a row.

For all the grief the Mariners have received over their passivity this offseason, their roster is currently projected to be the best in the AL West and second in the entire AL behind the Yankees, albeit by narrow margins in both cases. Having two superstars at up-the-middle positions and one of the best rotations in the league gives the team a very high ceiling. Of course, the Mariners have made one playoff appearance over the last three years with essentially the same roster they’re running back this season, and they showed a true lack of ambition over the winter considering the state of their division. Their worst case probably looks a lot like the last two years: a good season that falls just short of a playoff berth. But hey, they should win right around 54% of their games this year, which will put them squarely in the hunt.

No other team in the AL has benefited more from the Yankees’ woes than the Red Sox — the schadenfreude is palpable between these two rivals. Boston made a bunch of aggressive moves this offseason to put the team in position to compete for the AL East crown. The roster is not without flaws. The rotation is talented and deep, but filled with injury risk; three of their starters will begin the season on the IL. The spring drama at third base appears resolved now that Kristian Campbell has made the roster and Rafael Devers has moved off his position to accommodate their new third baseman, Alex Bregman. The Red Sox also have a couple more top prospects banging on the door of the majors, which gives them enviable depth. Things could just as easily go wrong if their starters can’t stay healthy, Devers doesn’t take to DH’ing very well, or their prospects struggle in the big leagues, but this is a talented group.

The Rangers are well acquainted with worst-case scenarios, having endured a pretty significant step back following their surprise championship in 2023. The biggest concern is the same this year as it was last year: Will the pitching stay healthy enough to support what should be a very potent lineup? Of course, that lineup will need to see some bounce backs from a handful of key contributors, and a completely revamped bullpen will need to gel quickly to support the rest of the team. That’s a lot of question marks, but the core that led the team to the World Series is still intact two years later. They’ve got the talent to challenge the Yankees for the AL crown, but all those risks could prevent them from reaching their ceiling.

An ugly September marred what could have been a second consecutive division-winning season in Minnesota last year. Thanks to the uncertainty surrounding their potential sale, the Twins are running back essentially the same roster as 2024, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing — they were in possession of a playoff spot for the majority of the summer! I’m going to sound like a broken record, but much of their success hinges on the health of their big three boppers, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis, and they’re already starting the season with Lewis on the IL after a spring hamstring strain. Even with all the uncertainty surrounding that trio, the Twins still project as the top team in a wide open AL Central. Making the playoffs would certainly make for a great season, but their best-case scenario likely involves finding a new ownership group that is willing to invest the resources necessary to get this club over the hump.

The Astros lineup is going to look a lot different this year. Gone are Kyle Tucker and Bregman. Jose Altuve is shifting to left field. Walker will hopefully help the Houston faithful forget the ill-fated José Abreu deal, and Isaac Paredes has his sights set on peppering the Crawford Boxes with dingers. They’ve weathered some big transitions in the past, but this is a lot of change all at once. The projections don’t anticipate that much drop-off in their overall run production; instead, it’s the pitching staff that might be this team’s downfall. Their rotation and bullpen are both pretty top-heavy and there isn’t much depth down on the farm. And then there’s the group of starters who are rehabbing from major injuries — Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier. It’s still unclear how many innings Houston can count on from that trio, and who knows what their stuff will look like when they return. The Astros will be very motivated to restart their streak of ALCS appearances after being bounced from the playoffs in the Wild Card round last year, and another deep playoff run would be a very nice payoff after all the change on their roster.

The best-case scenario for the Orioles is pretty easy to envision: Their young core of talented position players takes a big step forward and powers a deep run through the playoffs. But thanks to an oddly listless and uninspiring offseason, that vision will be a little tougher to realize than if they had really invested in their roster. Not finding a comparable replacement for Burnes was surprising, and now Grayson Rodriguez will start the season on the IL. That makes it just as easy to envision what a worst case would look like in Baltimore: Their talented lineup doesn’t get enough support from the pitching staff, and the O’s barely miss out on the playoffs in a crowded AL field.

The Cubs get their own tier here because while they’re a step ahead of the rest of the teams in the NL Central, they’re not up to the level of the Phillies, Mets, and Diamondbacks in tier 3. I will note that their Elo rating is being dragged down a little by the two games they lost in Japan to start the season, but I still think they’d fit here even if we were citing their preseason projections alone. The addition of Tucker pushes Chicago into division favorite territory, but they didn’t really put real daylight between themselves and their Central rivals. That leaves them vulnerable should anything go awry. A division title should be the expectation, but don’t be surprised if it’s a lot harder to secure that first place finish than what the projections show.

Both the Tigers and Royals enjoyed great seasons last year, sneaking into the playoffs in a crowded Wild Card field, but they’ll be hard pressed to repeat their success in 2025. Kansas City has a solid rotation and a legit MVP favorite in Bobby Witt Jr., but the rest of the lineup is a big question mark and the bullpen is middling. Detroit has a fantastic pitching staff from top to bottom, but the offense looks pretty punchless. A division title for either team could be in the mix should the rest of the AL Central falter, and all three Wild Card spots are there for the taking, but it feels like both teams would need an 80th- or 90th-percentile outcome to make it back to the postseason. The worst-case scenario for both of these teams would probably involve a pretty significant step back or a few key developmental failures in their respective farm systems while missing out on the playoffs entirely.

The Rays are a hard team to pin down. Having to play their home games in a minor league stadium rather than Tropicana Field will have plenty of repercussions up and down their roster, some good, some bad. The move out from under the dome could have some negative effects for the Rays’ pitchers, while offering a corresponding boost for some of their hitters. It looks like they dodged a bullet with Shane McClanahan’s latest injury, and when he’s healthy, their pitching staff should continue to be the strength of this roster, despite playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field. It’s never wise to overlook the Rays, and they could be a surprise contender if their new home park helps their offense outperform their projections. The worst case probably involves some added uncertainty about their permanent home and not enough development from their hitters to make much of a splash in the Wild Card race.

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette playing out their final year of team control, the worst case becomes pretty easy to envision for the Blue Jays: a good but not great season that falls short of the playoffs before both superstars depart in free agency without looking back. Even if the Jays miss out on October baseball, they could redeem their season by extending at least Vladito, or maybe both. In the meantime, the Jays will be stuck in desperation mode, hoping that the additions they made to the roster this winter are good enough for one last ride into October.

The Padres’ unsettled ownership situation put them in an extremely tough position this offseason. They didn’t sign a major league free agent until February and have five non-roster invitees on their Opening Day roster, though the additions of Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart were savvy moves to bolster their rotation. Still, years of win-now moves have depleted their farm system and the depth necessary to withstand any in-season attrition is razor thin. The Friars still have a ton of top-end talent on the roster, giving them a higher ceiling than you’d expect. Like the Twins, a best-case scenario isn’t necessarily a playoff berth so much as a resolution to their ownership issues (though I’m sure they’d take both), while their worst-case scenario likely ends in a pretty significant sell off and the beginning of a rebuild.

The Cubs seem to be getting all the attention atop the NL Central, but the Brewers always figure out a way to be competitive, no matter what kind of transition their roster has gone through. This offseason featured a bigger transition than most after losing Willy Adames to free agency and trading away Devin Williams, but Jackson Chourio gives them one of the most exciting young players in the game to build around. The downside scenarios they face are pretty clear: Chourio fails to take a step forward, Brandon Woodruff doesn’t return healthy, or Christian Yelich suffers a dip in performance following his back surgery. There are plenty more question marks on the pitching staff, but I’m sure they’ll find a way to squeeze into the playoff picture this summer.

The Giants have a path to a Wild Card berth if Logan Webb and Matt Chapman continue to lead the way, Justin Verlander can figure out how to turn back time, Robbie Ray and Jung Hoo Lee are healthy, and Adames powers the offense. It won’t really matter in the long run if Verlander ends up being a bust (he’s on a one-year deal), but the Giants are really counting on Adames to anchor this lineup for the foreseeable future; if he’s not up to the task, the team could be in trouble. They’re a playoff long shot at best, so a realistic best-case scenario would see them improve to 84 or 85 wins, breaking free of the muck they’ve been mired in since 2021 and giving them a stronger foundation to build on for next year.

For as quiet as their offseason was as they wait for a changing of the guard in their front office, the Cardinals still have an almost 25% chance of making the playoffs per our odds. Chalk that up to their weak division and a roster that still has some talent, even if it’s screaming for a significant overhaul. The pitching is a mess, the lineup doesn’t have much punch, and it really feels like they’re in a holding pattern until 2026. If that’s the case, some positive development from their youngsters like Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn would be a pretty big deal, and those two just might spark a surprise run at the NL Central crown.

The projections seem to be seriously underrating the Guardians, but their fantastic 2025 season was largely driven by a dominant bullpen. Their lineup is filled with contact specialists who largely lack power, and their once seemingly endless supply of starting pitching prospects has suddenly dried up. José Ramírez will continue to do the heavy lifting for this roster, and anything less than an MVP-caliber season from their superstar will likely result in them missing the playoffs. That’s a lot of pressure on one player, but this team is built with him as the centerpiece. Cleveland’s roster is young enough and talented enough that the team could find itself defending its division title with a few key breakouts from guys like Gavin Williams and Kyle Manzardo.

The Pirates and Reds are in very similar situations. Both teams have a talented young core that doesn’t have enough other pieces around it to truly shine. They play in a weak division, giving them better playoff odds than they would otherwise have. And their best- and worst-case scenarios also look a lot alike. A surprise division title wouldn’t be out of the question for either of these teams, and would probably resemble the Tigers’ or Royals’ ascent last year, with Paul Skenes and Elly De La Cruz at the center of their respective club’s competitive season. The worst-case looks a lot like the recent past, muddling through with a record hovering just below .500, wondering what could have been if they had the resources to really push their rosters over the hump.

The A’s are probably going to be a lot better than you think. They’ve got some real talent anchoring their lineup, and their move away from the oppressive marine layer in Oakland should help their hitters maximize their batted ball quality. On the field, a best-case scenario involves them taking tangible steps towards identifying more core pieces for their next great team or even a surprise Wild Card run. Off the field, they’ll be looking for some sort of forward momentum towards breaking ground on a new stadium in Las Vegas. The worst-case scenario here probably includes further uncertainty about the permanent home of the franchise.

The Angels are stuck in a difficult position. Years of win-now moves in spite of a flawed roster have left them well outside the playoff picture but no closer to building a competitive team. A best-case scenario for them, then, hopefully involves the realization that they need to tear everything down and embark on a difficult and lengthy rebuild. And maybe Mike Trout could play more than 120 games, as a treat. The worst-case would be more mediocrity, another season of Trout’s Hall of Fame career wasted while delaying the inevitable.

After making their debuts last year, both James Wood and Dylan Crews need to start establishing themselves as bonafide major league stars in Washington; nothing matters more for the Nationals’ future. Seeing some forward momentum towards that reality represents their best case, while stalled development would constitute the worst. They’ll also need to turn their attention to their pitching staff at some point, but let’s not put the cart before the horse.

Is it too much to ask for a new ownership group that wants to invest in baseball in south Florida? Barring that unlikely scenario, the Marlins really should be hoping for the healthy return of a bunch of their starting pitchers; Sandy Alcantara looks good to go to start the season and Eury Pérez should be back sometime this summer. Some positive developments from Max Meyer and the debuts of a few more of their top prospects could put a glimmer of hope in the eyes of the few Marlins fans left. If those top prospects flop or they see backsliding from some of their established major league players, it’ll be another long season in Miami.

The Rockies desperately need some direction for their organization. They’ve been left out in baseball’s wilderness for years now and don’t seem any closer to building a competitive roster. Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are good building blocks, and we could potentially see the debuts of some of their top prospects this year. The worst case would be Colorado reverting back to playing a bunch of its veterans instead of giving its youngsters a shot in the majors — optioning Zac Veen to Triple-A to start the season isn’t a good sign on that front. Seeing some sort of life out of Kris Bryant would also be a positive development, though it’s less important for the future of the organization.

Things couldn’t get any worse for the White Sox than they were last year, right? Realistically, they need to see some development wins among their top prospects, a debut or two, and impactful trade returns when they inevitably sell off anything of value at the deadline. I’m not entirely sure what a worst-case scenario would look like, but it might involve breaking the loss record they set last year.