We’ve reached the point in the Arizona Fall League calendar when the weather has officially shifted toward autumn, which makes being at the ballpark during the day about as close to heaven as one can get. The return of great weather also means the return of the Valley’s snowbirds, the (usually retired) folks who only live here during the pleasant time of year. The highways are suddenly very full again, and I’ve become a crabby baby about driving all the way to the West Valley for day games that then force me to drive home in rush hour traffic made more harrowing by the uptick in people. Opportunities to double up at East Valley stadiums are now golden, and I’ll be at Salt River and then Mesa each of the next couple of days.
We’re now deep enough into the AFL schedule that I’m starting to shift my in-person scouting focus toward hitters, especially when pitchers I’ve already seen a couple of times are in the game. It means spending more time down the baselines rather than behind home plate and (probably) more hitter-focused pieces like this for the next couple of weeks. But for now…
Grant Taylor, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Glendale Desert Dogs)
Some readers will recall that the fall before their draft year, Grant Taylor was slated to be LSU’s Friday night starter the following spring while Paul Skenes, fresh from the transfer portal, was the presumptive number two. A draft-eligible sophomore, Taylor blew out and needed Tommy John right before the start of the 2023 collegiate season and, as a result of his injury and a meager statistical track record that constituted one walk-prone season, he fell to the second round of that year’s draft. Taylor was only able to squeeze in 19.1 innings during the 2024 regular season once he was finished rehabbing, and came to the Arizona Fall League to pick up reps.
He looks sensational, flashing four average or better pitches, including a plus-flashing changeup that wasn’t part of Taylor’s college repertoire at all. Last week, Taylor sat 94-98 mph throughout his outing, and was mostly in the 96-98 range early on. His fastball has vertical shape that pairs nicely with his 83-ish mph curveball, which has fair depth but often lacks bite. Taylor’s 84-87 mph slider and 87-89 mph changeup are his two nastier secondary pitches. Breaking ball consistency will be key for Taylor moving forward. His slider’s finish is inconsistent but when it’s right, at that velocity, it’s plus. His changeup is going to give him a weapon to neutralize lefties that’s better than his curveball; the bottom falls out of it just as it reaches the plate.
Remember, Taylor has barely pitched since 2022. He’s unpolished but is incredibly gifted both athletically and from a stuff standpoint. Look at how powerful his lower body is and how substantial his hip and shoulder separation is at the end of the embedded video. This is a pretty special cat who is making an argument for inclusion on the Top 100 based on the quality of his stuff and the notion that he might develop as a craftsman as he accrues much-needed reps. Sometimes pitchers like this plateau and can look like Connor Phillips did this year. Speaking of…
Connor Phillips, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (Glendale Desert Dogs)
Phillips made his big league debut in 2023, and it seemed very, very likely that he’d be part of the Reds’ 2024 pitching staff in some capacity, certainly for long enough to lose prospect status. Instead, he ran an 8.01 ERA at Triple-A Louisville, walked 6.86 BB/9 and didn’t pitch in the big leagues at all. Phillips piggybacked with Phillies prospect Andrew Painter on Thursday, working four scoreless innings and walking just one. His stuff remains very nasty, especially his sweeper, which at times I’d consider a 70-grade pitch on the scouting scale. He also airmailed a fastball to the backstop at one point during this outing.
Phillips is still a work in progress as a strike-thrower, but he’s only 23 years old work. His curveball gives him enough of a weapon to compete against lefty hitters, and he can reach back for 99 when he really needs to bully someone with velocity. Still, I’ve considered Phillips more likely to be a multi-inning reliever for a while now. His track record of walk issues is quite long at this point, long enough that I want to see tangible improvement in this area before upgrading Phillips’ projected role. The Reds smartly promoted him at the very end of 2023 and didn’t option him at all that year, which means they only burned one of his three options at the start of 2024. That gives him two more years to percolate and try to improve his strike-throwing efficiency enough to be more comfortably deployed as a starter.
You can watch Phillips’ entire outing here and Painter’s entire start here, while following along with the pitch data provided by Baseball Savant. If brevity is more your thing, below you’ll find some of the best breaking balls both pitchers threw in this game:
Ben Ross, Utilityman, Minnesota Twins (Salt River Rafters)
I know his numbers aren’t good, but superutilityman Ben Ross looks good, playing defense all over the field and showing surprising power for a hitter as lithe and skinny as he is. Ross “broke out” in 2023 with 19 bombs at High-A Cedar Rapids, but he struck out in roughly 30% of his 2024 plate appearances and posted a mere 78 wRC+ at Double-A Wichita. Ross struggles with secondary pitch recognition, but he’s very dangerous in the middle-up portions of the zone and his swing is surprisingly short considering how much power he has. He will probably always strike out too much to be an everyday player at a single position, but Ross’ ability to play a competent shortstop and center field (the latter is less certain, but regular season tape from Ross’ time there suggests it’s plausible) could soon make him a better, more impactful role-playing option than Austin Martin has been.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com