Welcome to the last Matrix Reloaded before pitchers and catchers report! This time next week, spring training camps will be nearly full, with full squad workouts starting no later than February 18. Who exactly will be participating in those workouts is still fluid, but this past week was a busy one that provided a lot of new information for me to add to the offseason omnibus. Here’s what happened.
Marquee Signings
Mets Sign Pete Alonso for Two Years, $57 Million
• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Mets
Bringing the Polar Bear back locks in all nine of the Mets’ starting spots barring any surprising moves or injuries. With their rotation and bullpen also seemingly full, I’d expect this to be their last major move of the offseason at any position, though they still could do a few things on the margins.
The Mets have tried to trade Starling Marte, and they’re reportedly willing to pay down some of his $19 million salary to move him, but it’s unsurprising that teams aren’t really biting. Marte is coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons and his value as a fielder has absolutely tanked. Other “excess” players the Mets could look to deal include righty starter Paul Blackburn, third baseman Brett Baty, outfielder José Azocar, and righty reliever Sean Reid-Foley.
Effect on Other Teams
The other team that (from the outside, at least) seemed to be most strongly in on Alonso was the Blue Jays, but they always struck me as something of an inelegant fit. They either would’ve slid Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back over to third or made Alonso, who’s always been a full-time first baseman, their primary DH. Attempting to lure Alex Bregman would make for a much cleaner fit in Toronto, but it’s unclear how willing or able the Jays would be to swing the six- or seven-year deal that Bregman is seeking. On a Bleacher Report stream, Jon Heyman named the Cubs as the current favorites for Bregman, but by how much is also unclear.
Effect on Similar Players
Alonso’s short-term deal doesn’t really affect what Bregman will ultimately get. Heyman reported last week that the third baseman has a “lucrative” six-year offer on the table, including an opt-out after the first year. Bob Nightengale reported on Thursday that Bregman “still has no interest in a short-term contract.”
Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty for Two Years, $35 Million
• Dan Symborski’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Tigers
Flaherty’s return gives the Tigers a strong no. 2 starter to slot behind all-world ace Tarik Skubal and sets up a doozy of a competition for the last one or two rotation spots behind Skubal, Flaherty, and Alex Cobb. Reese Olson appears to be a near-lock for that fourth spot, coming off 22 starts (112 1/3 innings) with a 3.53 ERA, 3.17 FIP, and 3.64 xERA.
As such, there could end up being just one spot for top prospect Jackson Jobe, veteran Kenta Maeda, Casey Mize, Ty Madden, Keider Montero, and Matt Manning.
Effect on Other Teams
Flaherty was the best remaining starter available, but because both his market and ultimate deal were quite underwhelming compared to what other starters signed for earlier in the offseason, it’s unclear how many teams are still interested in adding high-upside pitchers to bolster their rotations. Nick Pivetta is the lone free agent option who fits that billing, but the trade market features plenty of enticing pitchers, such as Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Castillo, and Erick Fedde.
It’s also worth considering that Flaherty’s deal may have been more of a reflection of the individual pitcher than the market. As Michael Rosen wrote in mid-January, “The hot market for starters and the comparatively cool market for Flaherty suggest that, unlike the rest of the nominal ‘front-end’ starting pitchers at the top of the market, something about him scares teams.” On the surface, Michael noted, teams were probably a bit hesitant because Flaherty’s last healthy and effective season before last year came in 2019. Beyond that, though, Michael pointed more specifically to Flaherty’s fastball as the source of concern for his suitors. Those other pitchers I mentioned don’t come with the same yellow flags, so teams could be more willing to spend the money or prospect capital to acquire one of them. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Effect on Similar Players
Flaherty’s below-expectations contract may not be good news for Pivetta, who is three years older than Flaherty and was saddled with a qualifying offer, which Flaherty was ineligible to receive. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week that there are 10 teams interested in Pivetta, though we’ve only publicly heard about three, marked on the Matrix in blue: the Blue Jays, the Mets, and the Reds. Two of those teams have added other starting pitchers since their interest in Pivetta was reported; Toronto signed Max Scherzer on January 30, while in December New York re-signed Sean Manaea and brought in Griffin Canning. Cincinnati’s interest was reported after the team traded for Brady Singer, but Pivetta doesn’t seem like a great fit for the Reds. The Great American Ballpark is a tough home stadium for fly ball pitchers like Pivetta.
The issue with Pivetta’s qualifying offer is that not only does it make teams more wary of signing him in general, but it also makes him less appealing on a short-term deal. Basically, teams aren’t going to want to give up their draft pick and whatever salary they agree to pay for a player who is only going to be around for one season. Understanding this, it seems possible that he still could get the three-year, $45 million median prediction (on the Total Spending Projection page), especially if there truly are double-digit teams interested in his services.
Righty-Hitting Outfielder Signings
Twins Sign Harrison Bader for One Year, $6.25 Million
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Twins
The most glaring need for the Twins (besides money falling from the sky) was to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to balance out lefty bats Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, and they got their man in Bader. The defensive stalwart was actually worse against lefties last year (70 wRC+ compared to 93 against righties), but historically he’s leaned the other direction (109 wRC+ against southpaws for his career, 84 against righties).
Bader’s true calling is his aforementioned strong defense; while he hasn’t played a position other than center since 2018, the thought of him playing next to Byron Buxton late in games to help lock down wins is quite appealing. He can also get Buxton off his feet up the middle without the Twins having to give up much, if anything, on defense. The Twins could hypothetically start Buxton in center against righties with another player DHing, and have Buxton DH against lefties with Bader in center.
Diamondbacks Sign Randal Grichuk for One Year, $5 Million
• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Diamondbacks
Despite losing Christian Walker to the Astros, Joc Pederson to the Rangers, and Josh Bell to the Nationals, baseball’s highest-scoring offense in 2024 looks primed to be right around the top of the list again in 2025. Instead of platooning with Pederson at DH, Grichuk should platoon with Pavin Smith, who had a mini-breakout in 158 plate appearances last year.
All nine of Arizona’s starting spots look locked in unless there’s a trade, so the Diamondbacks are just left to decide on their backup catcher — either Jose Herrera, René Pinto, or Adrian Del Castillo — and their two other bench players. Six infielders — Garrett Hampson, Ildemaro Vargas, Blaze Alexander, Jordan Lawlar, Tim Tawa, and Grae Kessinger — are fighting for one spot, and three outfielders — Alek Thomas, Jorge Barrosa, and Cristian Pache — are competing for the other.
Pirates Sign Tommy Pham for One Year, $4.025 Million
• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Pirates
Pham gives the Pirates another bat, along with veteran free agents Andrew McCutchen, who signed what’s become his annual one-year, $5 million contract with Pittsburgh, and Adam Frazier, as well as trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz. That said, Pham is not exactly the impact bat the Pirates needed to provide run support for a rotation fronted by one of the best pitchers in baseball. At this point I don’t think an impact bat is walking through that door, so Pirates fans will have to settle for watching Pham platoon in right field with Joshua Palacios, or perhaps another lower-tier addition like Alex Verdugo, in whom they’ve expressed interest.
Orioles Sign Ramón Laureano for One Year, $4 Million
• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Orioles
Saying the Orioles’ outfield is jam-packed would be an understatement. Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser will be the starters against righties, with Laureano likely to fill a platoon role against lefty pitching. Ryan O’Hearn ought to be the starting DH against righties, which leaves just one spot on the bench for Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Carlson, and Daz Cameron, who’s out of options.
The lefty-swinging Kjerstad certainly merits a longer look coming off a 116 wRC+ in 114 plate appearances (despite not pulling a single fly ball to right field!), but a trade might be necessary to open up regular playing time for him. If Baltimore decides to move someone, O’Hearn or first baseman Ryan Mountcastle seem like the most obvious candidates.
Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams
The four signings above all happened in a 48-hour span and very quickly and dramatically shortened the list of available righty hitting outfielders who are at least capable of playing center field. Enrique Hernández is the best remaining player to fit that criteria, and he comes with the added ability to play all around the infield, too. Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Pillar can all play up the middle with varying levels of competence, and Mark Canha is a nice bat but hasn’t played any center field in the last two seasons. The trade market has Luis Robert Jr. as its jewel.
Effect of Their Signings on Similar Players
All of the free agent outfielders mentioned above will likely end up signing for less than what Bader earned. It’s possible that Canha and Hernández get contracts that fall somewhere in the range that Pham, Grichuk and Laureano received, but Taylor and Pillar might to have to settle for minor league deals.
Infielder Signings
Angels Sign Yoán Moncada for One Year, $5 Million
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Angels
If there aren’t any injuries, the Angels probably have all 13 position player spots locked up, though it’s worth noting that Zach Neto’s offseason shoulder surgery could cause him to miss the start of the season. In that case Kevin Newman would play short.
Moncada has played third base exclusively since 2019, so at least at the beginning of the season, the Halos have two starting-caliber third basemen. That said, both Moncada and Anthony Rendon have spent considerable time on the injured list in recent years, so having depth at the position isn’t a bad thing. As things stand, RosterResource projects Rendon to be the starting third baseman and Moncada to platoon against righties at DH, with offseason acquisition Jorge Soler playing right field. In this case, Jo Adell would play right field against lefties, with Soler sliding to DH. I still expect Soler to end up at DH more often than not, just because he really shouldn’t play the field much. Rendon could also platoon with Moncada at third or the lefty-hitting Nolan Schanuel at first, a position he’s never played as a professional, as a way for the Angels to give Adell regular playing time in right field. Then again, the Angels might not have this lineup crunch for long. Rendon has been hurt for more than half of every season since 2021.
Effect on Other Teams
I suppose the Angels could open up some playing time by trading one of their trio of returning non-Mike Trout outfielders, either Adell, Taylor Ward, or Mickey Moniak. But I don’t think that’s going to happen here, at least not in response to the Moncada signing. Really, the Angels brought in Moncada as insurance for Rendon. Playing time has a way of sorting itself out. Other teams will have to look elsewhere for an outfielder, and if they want a third baseman not named Bregman, their free agent options are limited to Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Luis Urías, and Miguel Sanó.
Effect on Similar Players
Coming off his resurgent (albeit BABIP-fueled) season with the Mets, Iglesias likely has his sights set on well more than $5 million. We haven’t heard much about his market. I think $5 million sounds about right — if not a little low — for DeJong, who popped 24 homers with a 95 wRC+ last season, both his best marks since 2019. I’d be surprised if Urías was able to find a major league deal, and even more surprised if Sanó did.
Lefty Relief Pitcher Signings
Twins Sign Danny Coulombe for One Year, $3 Million
• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Twins
Minnesota’s best-in-baseball bullpen projection just got a little bit better with the return of Coulombe, who pitched for the team from 2020-22 before being traded to Baltimore.
The lefty with three distinct fastballs and two distinct breaking balls will give the Twins a different look alongside hard throwing righties Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Jorge Alcala. Funky righty Michael Tonkin (who’s out of options) and Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano could round out the bullpen so the Twins can maximize their 40-man depth without exposing anyone to waivers, but Ronny Henriquez (also out of options), Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Louie Varland will be in the thick of the competition as well.
Yankees Sign Tim Hill for One Year, $2.85 Million
• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection
Effect on the Yankees
The Yankees had exactly zero lefty relievers on their 40-man roster prior to re-signing Hill, so while he won’t light up the radar gun or strike many hitters out, he’ll play a key role for New York once again. This overall scarcity of left-handed pitchers though doesn’t mean the Yankees will struggle against lefty batters in the later innings. New closer Devin Williams neutralizes lefties with his signature airbender changeup, and setup man Luke Weaver also relies on a changeup to retire lefties. Meanwhile, Fernando Cruz, whom the Yankees acquired from the Reds, and Mark Leiter Jr. throw splitters to keep lefties at bay.
The Yankees currently have six starting pitchers for their big league roster, though Marcus Stroman could end up in the bullpen so long as he doesn’t get traded. Assuming he stays, there’ll be seven spots for traditional relievers, and a minimum of five are accounted for by Williams, Weaver, Cruz, Hill, and Leiter. That leaves two openings for the likes of Ian Hamilton, JT Brubaker, Jake Cousins, Scott Effross, Roansy Contreras, Yerry De Los Santos, and Yoendrys Gómez. Brubaker, Contreras, and Gómez are out of options. Jonathan Loáisiga, currently recovering from elbow surgery, should be able to help out by midseason.
Effect of Their Signings on Other Teams
The free agent pool has lost two intriguing lefty relievers, but there are still southpaws aplenty. Scott Alexander posted the lowest ERA (2.56) and highest grounder rate (60.0%) last year of any remaining free agent reliever with at least 25 innings of work; Ryan Yarbrough led all major league relievers with 98 2/3 innings; Jalen Beeks retooled his pitch mix to somewhat rebound from a bad 2023; and Andrew Chafin has a long track record of being somewhere between serviceable and dominant. There’s also Drew Smyly, Will Smith, Brooks Raley (who hopes to be back from Tommy John surgery in July), and others.
Effect of the Their Signings on Similar Players
The $1.5–$3 million range that Hill and Coulombe — as well as earlier signees Tim Mayza, Justin Wilson, and Hoby Milner — received feels about right for all but one of the lefties named above. Raley will likely get a back-loaded two-year contract coming off his injury rehab.
Trades
Cubs Acquire Ryan Brasier, Cash (amount not yet reported) from Dodgers for PTBNL or Cash
• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
• Updated Dodgers Roster Projection
• Updated Dodgers Payroll Projection
Where the Cubs Go From Here
Kyle Tucker will get all the headlines, but the Cubs have done a lot of work revamping their bullpen this offseason, too. Brasier, Ryan Pressly, Caleb Thielbar, and Eli Morgan are all newcomers; of those four, only Morgan can be optioned. Expect the other three to be in the Opening Day bullpen, along with Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, and — if he’s not in the rotation — fellow newcomer Colin Rea. There’ll be at most three more spots up for grabs and a lot of arms battling for them, including Morgan, Julian Merryweather, Keegan Thompson, Nate Pearson, and Luke Little, among others.
Where the Dodgers Go From Here
There’s nothing else for the Dodgers to do here, as Brasier had been DFA’d.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com