Point: The Diamondbacks Should Sell at the Trade Deadline

This was supposed to be the Diamondbacks’ year. After sneaking into the playoffs in 2023 with just 84 wins, then scoring upset after upset to reach the World Series, they improved to 89 wins last year, missing out on October only due to a tiebreaker. The near-miss stung, but the response — signing Corbin Burnes to head their rotation, and keeping the rest of their core intact en route to a club record payroll ($197 million) — made sense. Unfortunately, things haven’t panned out this season, and as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, I believe the Diamondbacks would be best served by selling. (My colleague Michael Baumann feels differently, and will soon make the case on why they should approach the deadline more aggressively.)

Arizona isn’t a bad team. The Diamondbacks have gone just 50-51, but they’ve outscored their opponents by 17 runs; they’re roughly two wins shy of their PythagenPat-projected record and three wins shy of their BaseRuns-projected records. But they’re also running fourth in the NL West, nine games behind the Dodgers (59-42), and they’re 5 1/2 games out of the third NL Wild Card spot, currently occupied by the Padres (55-45), with the Giants, Cardinals, and Reds (all 52-49) between them. It’s not the distance that’s working against them with 61 games to play, it’s the traffic. With so many teams vying for playoff spots, the Diamondbacks have just a 14.9% chance of reaching the postseason — better at least than the Reds (10.8%) — but their odds of winning the World Series are down to 0.7%. It’s tough to envision them making a deep October run not only without Burnes, who underwent Tommy John surgery in June, but with lesser versions of Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez than they expected.

While general manager Mike Hazen could try to patch the Diamondbacks’ various holes in the rotation, bullpen, and outfield — they made my Replacement Level Killers List in both left field (primarily Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and center (Alek Thomas) — the team is exceptionally well set up to sell. The Diamondbacks have five pending free agents who figure to be of great interest to other contenders, namely first baseman Josh Naylor, third baseman Eugenio Suárez, righties Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and closer Shelby Miller. All but Gallen are performing well, though Miller is currently on the injured list due to a forearm strain (more on which below). They also have a few other players with various flavors of contract options for 2026 who aren’t performing well but could serve as complementary pieces:

By opening for business, the Diamondbacks will place themselves at the center of the action as July 31 approaches, allowing Hazen to net substantial returns that can help restock the team’s roster and farm system. The aforementioned players are worth a closer look.

Unless the Red Sox decide to deal Alex Bregman or Jarren Duran — which seems unlikely given their recent surge into a Wild Card position in the AL — Suárez should be the best bat available at the deadline. The 34-year-old slugger is in the midst of a career year, ranking second only to Shohei Ohtani in slugging percentage, sixth in wRC+, and tied for 10th in WAR. The Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Reds, Yankees are among the contenders in need of a third baseman, and he’d significantly beef up any of those lineups. He’s no stranger to either Cincinnati (where he played from 2015–21), or Seattle (2022–23); he clouted a career-high 49 homers in 2019 for the former, and helped the latter break its epic playoff drought in ’22.

The main caveat regarding Suárez is that his defense is nothing to write home about. Updating what I wrote in my coverage of the weakest team defenses among contenders, his -5 DRS makes this the seventh season in a row he’s been below average by that metric; while Statcast values him more highly, his -4 FRV is 13 runs below his 2023 mark and six runs below last year’s. Still, a change of scenery could help (shortstop Geraldo Perdomo has had a rough season as well), and his offense will more than cover for his shortcomings in the field.

Like Suárez, the 36-year-old Kelly is in the midst of one of his best seasons. He’s in a seven-way tie for the NL lead in starts (21), fifth in innings, 12th in ERA (3.32), and 14th in FIP (3.48). With an average four-seam fastball velocity of just 92 mph, he’s not overpowering, but his secondary stuff has absolutely befuddled opponents. Batters have hit just .176 and slugged .275 against his changeup this year while whiffing on 34% of their swings at the pitch. They’ve hit just .125 and slugged .278 against his cutter, and his slider has been very effective while being exclusively used against righties (.100 AVG, .133 SLG, 30.3% whiff). His 24.2% strikeout rate and 16.6% strikeout-to-walk differential are both the second highest of his career. It doesn’t hurt that Kelly pitched very well during the 2023 postseason, putting up a 2.25 ERA in 24 innings over four starts, including a seven-inning, one-run, nine-strikeout performance in the Diamondbacks’ only World Series win against the Rangers.

As for the 28-year-old Naylor, after hitting 31 homers for the Guardians last season, he’s traded some power for contact. He’s cut his strikeout rate from 16.6% to 12.4%, while more or less replicating his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate from last year; his barrel rate has dropped from 8.4% to 6.7%, but he’s offset that by posting a career-high 20.5% pulled air rate, and his 125 wRC+ is just two points off his career high, set in 2023. He’s even stolen a career-high 11 bases in 13 attempts. He’d be a great fit for the Mariners or Red Sox, but there’s no shortage of teams that could use a left-handed impact bat, whether at first base (where Naylor admittedly isn’t a threat to win a Gold Glove) or designated hitter.

Similarly, Miller would fit on a variety of rosters, though his fate is up in the air at this writing. The 34-year-old righty has been around the block and then some, pitching for nine teams, and thankfully his second stint with the Diamondbacks has gone much better than his first, during which he went 5-18 with a 6.35 ERA from 2016–18, missing time due to Tommy John surgery amid that mess. Moving to the bullpen has suited him to the point that he’s leveled up. Relying on a two-pitch mix that includes a four-seamer averaging a career-best 95.2 mph and a splitter that he introduced in 2023, he’s posted a 1.98 ERA and career bests in FIP (3.12), strikeout rate (28%) and strikeout-to-walk differential (20.3%) in 36 innings. He entered this season with just three career saves, but upon taking over the closer role in May, he has notched 10.

Alas, Miller landed on the injured list with a flexor tendon strain two weeks ago. After getting multiple opinions from doctors, he recently resumed throwing, and is scheduled to face live batters on Tuesday. In the coming days, the Diamondbacks should have more clarity on whether he’ll be able to pitch again this year, and how soon. Obviously, any team that would consider acquiring him will scrutinize his medical file, but literally every contender is in the market for relief help. If Miller can get the green light from the doctors — even if he won’t be available immediately — his services will be in demand.

Gallen offers question marks of a different flavor. He was the staff ace from 2022–24, producing 12.1 WAR via a 3.20 ERA and 3.22 FIP while pitching an average of 180.2 innings. He received Cy Young votes in 2022 and ’23, and was an All-Star in the latter season. This year, however, he’s been cuffed. Just three of his last 13 starts have been quality starts; over that span he has a 6.30 ERA and 5.31 FIP. Not great, Bob.

Gallen’s strikeout rate has dropped from 25.1% to 22.2%, while his home run rate has more than doubled, from 0.79 per nine to 1.71, and his barrel rate has shot from 7.4% to 12%. He’s lost a little velocity, with his average four-seamer dipping from from 93.7 mph to 93.3, and the pitch’s shape has changed slightly. It’s coming in from a slightly lower arm angle (42 degrees, compared to 41 last year), and getting a bit less rise and a bit less run, but batters are actually not doing as much with it as they did last year. The real issue is the decline of his knuckle curve; while his 42.9% whiff rate is higher than last year, batters are hitting .229 and slugging .449 against it, up from a .148 AVG and .230 SLG. Both of our pitch modeling systems see his stuff — which was never remarkable — as being in the midst of a multiyear decline, offset by exceptional command/location.

Gallen’s WAR is right at zero, but given the extent to which starting pitching is at a premium — teams are even talking about Sandy Alcantara despite his 7.14 ERA! — I think he’ll still fetch a useful return, if not one that will match Kelly. He’s a classic change-of-scenery candidate, in that another team might have spotted something to tweak in order to help him regain his form, and as a contact-oriented pitcher, he could use a better defense behind him. In addition to Suárez, I noted on Monday that several other Diamondbacks aren’t having good years with the glove, including Perdomo (-6 DRS, -1 FRV), Gurriel (-6 DRS, -3 FRV), and Naylor (-4 DRS, -1 FRV), with the jury out on Thomas in center field (-3 DRS, 3 FRV).

As for the three G’s (Grichuk, Gurriel, and Graveman), their performances have been subpar, but that doesn’t mean they won’t get moved and given a shot at helping another contender. Hazen has reportedly gotten calls regarding their outfield depth, which includes not only Gurriel, a 2023 All-Star, but also Grichuk, a classic bench righty who can play center field (ish). The Diamondbacks could even entertain discussions regarding Thomas and Jake McCarthy, whose remaining club control gives them some appeal even if they haven’t been at the top of their games.

If there seems to be a lot of that going around on this roster, that’s a big part of the reason they should sell. I haven’t even mentioned that a pair of regulars, catcher Gabriel Moreno and DH/first baseman Pavin Smith, are on the IL due to injuries, and key relievers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez are both done for the year due to Tommy John surgery. Moreno, who fractured his right index finger on June 6, will be out until at least mid-August. Smith, who strained an oblique on July 5, was recently cleared to take dry swings and is aiming for an early August return.

None of the aforementioned trade candidates is making a huge salary, so particularly for the “big five,” money shouldn’t be an impediment at trade time; the Diamondbacks won’t have to eat a ton of salary in order to get a better return. If those five are all traded, they figure to save the Diamondbacks around $15-16 million in remaining 2025 salary.

For whatever deals they do make, the Diamondbacks are reportedly most interested in targeting young pitching given the pending departures of Gallen and Kelly, and the struggles of just about every other starter save for Ryne Nelson. Hazen’s not going to rebuild this roster overnight, and this isn’t going to be painless; the Diamondbacks currently rank eighth in the NL in attendance (the highest they’ve ranked since 2004), up from 12th in 2023 and 10th last year, so a sell-off will cost them momentum. But capturing lightning in a bottle with a .500-ish team again, as they did in 2023, is highly unlikely. Hazen should put up the “For Sale” sign and get busy on those phones.