Red Sox Third Base Drama Appears To Be Resolved (For Now)

Who’s on third? For the Red Sox, the answer appears to be Alex Bregman. When the two-time All-Star and reigning AL Gold Glove third baseman signed with Boston last month, the move created controversy given the presence and the initial public reaction of Rafael Devers, a three-time All-Star and, because of his 10-year contract, the cornerstone of the franchise. These things have a way of working themselves out, however, and Bregman is now on track to handle the hot corner to start the season, with Devers serving as the designated hitter — a move that should strengthen the lineup and defense.

The 30-year-old Bregman agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox on February 12. When he signed, several outlets noted the likelihood, or at least the possibility, that he would switch from the position at which he’s spent most of his nine-year major league career, particularly as the Red Sox had already acknowledged the situation. When the team was courting Bregman in January, manager Alex Cora — who coached him in Houston — told NESN viewers of his previous experience with the infielder:

“Alex was a Gold Glover at third base. We all know that… But in 2017, I had a conversation with him and he needed to play third because it was [Carlos] Correa and [Jose] Altuve [at shortstop and second]. I always envisioned Alex as a Gold Glove second baseman. His size, the way he moves, it felt kind of like, ‘You will be a second baseman.’ But he has played third base at a high level. So we’ll see where he ends up and we’ll see where he ends up playing.”

Because of Correa’s various absences due to injuries, Bregman made 129 appearances (107 starts) at shortstop from 2016–19, but just nine appearances (two starts) at second base; he hasn’t played a defensive inning at a position besides third since then. Even so, a move seemed likely, particularly when Devers took the opposite tack from Altuve, who in January volunteered to switch positions himself to facilitate bringing Bregman back to Houston. (The Astros confirmed on Wednesday that Altuve will be their primary left fielder this season.)

When Devers reported to Fort Myers, he publicly proclaimed through an interpreter, “Third base is my position… I don’t know what their plans are. We had a conversation. I made it clear on what my desires were.” He added that when he signed his 10-year, $313.5 million extension in January 2023, he received assurances from the team “that I would be playing this position for a long time.”

“I don’t know what caused the change,” added Devers. “I know I’ve worked really hard on my defense throughout the years. I feel that last year, I had a really good year. I still have a lot more to give.”

As Cora noted, the Red Sox had undergone a regime change since that conversation, with Craig Breslow taking over from the fired Chaim Bloom as the team’s chief baseball officer. Fair enough, but to these eyes, Breslow and/or Cora probably should have kept their 28-year-old star slugger and highest-paid player abreast of the their pursuit of Bregman and the ramifications of landing him so as to avoid such a scene.

For his part, Bregman did his best to avoid fanning the flames, publicly deferring to Devers by saying, “I’m super excited to just be his teammate… I’ll play wherever AC tells me to play.”

One month and change later, Bregman has played only third base in Grapefruit League exhibitions, while Devers hasn’t played an inning in the field, as he’s ramped up slowly after being shut down in late September last year due to inflammation in both shoulders. He had been hampered by nagging left shoulder discomfort dating back to last spring training, and it increasingly affected his bat speed as the season progressed:

Alex Cora on Rafael Devers’ shoulder issues: “The bat speed, you can see it … He worked on a few things in the offseason, & one of those was to catch up with the fastball. And then we got to a point that he didn’t. Teams, they noticed it, & they attacked him. It was relentless” pic.twitter.com/AcA4b9dxGv

— David Adler (@_dadler) September 22, 2024

Devers’ production headed south with the declining bat speed:

“[It affected me] a lot,” Devers said at the time. “Because it never stopped hurting me. I never felt like myself this year.” Even so, his final slash line was typically robust, as were his Statcast numbers, including a 96th-percentile average exit velocity, a 95th-percentile hard-hit rate and a 92nd-percentile xwOBA. Devers additionally injured his right shoulder diving for a ball in July, and it affected his throwing, though the issue didn’t really show up in any of his metrics. He cut his total of throwing errors — admittedly, an imperfect measure of anything — from seven to three from 2023 to ’24, and his Statcast numbers improved slightly, at least in the aggregate:

According to DRS, Devers was nine runs below average in each of the past two seasons, and six below average in 2022; he had the majors’ second-lowest mark last year, ahead of only Nick Senzel (-11), and the second-lowest of the three-year stretch, ahead of only Alec Bohm (-27). By comparison, Bregman had 6 DRS last year (tied for eighth) and 7 DRS for the three-year stretch. He also had a 21-run advantage in FRV for that span (9 vs. -12):

Fortunately for Devers, his MRIs showed that he had no structural damage, so he did not need surgery. Nonetheless, he made slow progress this spring while doing infield and cage work separate from the team. Plans for a March 5 Graperfuit League debut were pushed back multiple times, as he told Cora he needed more time to get his mechanics and timing at the plate in order. “My shoulders are fine,” he said last week. “I hadn’t picked up a bat from the end of last season to when I got here in January, so I just felt like I needed that little bit of extra time.”

Last week, Devers said he spoke to Breslow and Cora and told them, “I’m good to do whatever they want me to do,” though he later admitted that he even considered asking for a trade. He finally made his spring debut on March 15, going 0-for-3 against the Braves as a DH. Two days later, he hit an RBI double against the Orioles. Prior to Wednesday’s game against the Tigers (in which Devers went 0-for-3), Cora gave his clearest signal of what’s to come, telling reporters that Devers would “probably not” play a game at third before the end of spring training. As for anything more definitive, “I’ll say that whenever I have to say it but right now, Breggy is playing third today and Raffy’s DHing today,” said Cora.

Assuming this is the alignment the Red Sox carry into the season, it not only provides the Red Sox with better defense at third base, it helps the rest of the roster click into place. Even if he’s merely an everyday DH — or one who can spot in the field — Devers is a superior hitter to Masataka Yoshida, who will start the year on the injured list while recovering from a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Last year, his second since coming over from Japan on a five-year, $90 million deal, Yoshida hit .280/.349/.415 (115 wRC+) while playing just one inning in the field, that after struggling defensively in left field in 2023 (-12 FRV, -4 DRS). Full-time DHs who don’t hit for much power or get on base a great deal aren’t so valuable, particularly when they can’t hit lefties; Yoshida managed just a 58 wRC+ against them, compared to 134 against righties. His season was worth 0.8 WAR.

Cora will have his work cut out finding playing time for Yoshida in an outfield crowded with elite defenders (Jarren Duran in left, Ceddanne Rafaela in center, Wilyer Abreu in right), but playing Bregman at third base opens up second base for David Hamilton, Kristian Campbell, or Marcelo Mayer. Vaughn Grissom, a 24-year-old middle infielder acquired from the Braves in the Chris Sale trade, got a look at second after being limited to 31 games and a 28 wRC+ by groin and hamstring strains last season, but he was optioned on Wednesday.

Hamilton, a 27-year-old who was acquired from the Brewers in the December 2021 trade for Hunter Renfroe, hit .248/.303/.395 (92 wRC+) in 317 plate appearances as a rookie last year while stealing 33 bases in 37 attempts. Small sample caveats apply, but he played very good defense (8 DRS, 2 FRV) in 39 games at second but struggled a bit in 62 games at shortstop (-4 DRS, -2 FR). He’s the safest bet to start the season as the regular at the keystone, while Campbell, a 60-FV prospect who placed seventh on our Top 100 Prospects list last month, and Mayer, a 50-FV prospect who ranked 57th, are the more interesting options given their higher upsides.

Drafted out of Georgia Tech as a fourth-round competitive balance pick in 2023, Campbell made strong showings at High-A Greenville, Double-A Portland, and Triple-A Worcester last year, hitting a combined .330/.439/.558 (180 wRC+) with 20 homers and 24 steals and earning Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year honors. In his short time since being drafted, he’s gone from an outstanding slash-and-dash leadoff type to a hitter with plus power. From Eric Longenhagen’s write-up:

The Red Sox have essentially made him into a Jarren Duran sequel, taking another speedy, contact-oriented second baseman and making subtle changes to his swing and approach, resulting in a seismic shift to his offensive output, which now includes big power…

Campbell is now swinging with damage-seeking intent and has been able to lift the ball more (three degrees of launch in 2023, nine degrees in 2024). The power he’s generating with his new style is shocking. His high-end exit velocities are now comfortably plus on the big league scale (he hit a ball 114 mph last year), and he’s doing huge damage to all fields.

Longenhagen graded the 22-year-old Campbell’s defense as 30/40 (present/future) with his arm a 40, and noted that where he’ll play is a big question. He’s a strapping 6-foot-3 and has the speed for center field, though he’s very raw there, and with Durran and Rafaela, the team already has two players more than capable of manning center. Campbell did play second base at Georgia Tech, and he’s gotten a long look there this spring, though he hasn’t won the job. Here’s what MLB.com’s Ian Browne wrote on Sunday:

“Campbell has struggled,” said Cora. “That’s part of it, right? Not everybody is going to be able to slow it down in camp and be perfect, but that’s part of the progression. But, yeah, I mean, playing time is important, the development of the player is important, but I think winning games right now is more important.”

On Monday, Browne noted that Campbell improved his standing by roping a double and handling several tough chances while playing a full nine innings against the Orioles.

Mayer, who’s also 22, was the fourth pick of the 2021 draft out of Eastlake High School in Chula Vista, California. He spent all of last season at Portland, where he hit .307/.370/.480 (142 wRC+), but a lumbar sprain limited him to 77 games, the last on July 30, and cost him a late-season promotion to Worcester. He’s a sweet-swinging lefty with 60-grade raw power but enough contact issues that Longenhagen graded his hit tool at 30/35. He can mash fastballs but struggles against secondary stuff. “Just how stark is the contrast? Mayer had an 87% contact rate against fastballs last year, and a 57% contact rate against breaking balls,” wrote Longenhagen.

Aside from one game at third base in each of the past two seasons, Mayer had exclusively played shortstop as pro, but on Tuesday he played four innings at second base against the Yankees, and on Wednesday he played a full game at the keystone against the Tigers, hitting an RBI triple. He’s handled his chances in the field cleanly, and started a 4-6-3 double play with shortstop Trevor Story, the man impeding his path at his natural position — at least when he’s healthy. And for the most part, that hasn’t been the case; injuries have limited Story to just 163 games across his three seasons with the Red Sox. For Mayer, a jump from Double-A directly to the majors at a new position in time for Opening Day seems unlikely, but on Wednesday Cora didn’t rule him out, saying, “He can do it… Like I said, everybody [in the second base competition] has a shot.”

The Red Sox will have to make up their mind about their Opening Day lineup soon, and at some point, they’ll have to find time for Devers at third base. He’s never played first base, a position currently occupied by Triston Casas, and is a bit young to be a DH-only option; what’s more, Bregman’s contract contains opt-outs after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, leaving the door ajar when it comes to a full-time return to the field. With no. 2 overall prospect Roman Anthony possibly arriving this summer to push Durran back to center and Rafaela into a second base mix already crowded by the potential spot-work of Bregman, Cora has his work cut out to juggle so many talented players. Still, that situation beats the alternatives.