2:00 |
: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! We’ll get to as many questions as possible. Here we go …
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2:01 |
: Any thoughts on where J.D. Martinez winds up signing? There is not a lot of demand for RH DHs so does he end up going to whoever offers him the most at the start of spring training? Maybe with an eye toward getting traded to a contender later? Does he wait for spring injuries to boost his market?
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2:04 |
: Jon Heyman reported just last night that he’s planning on playing this year, and it’s unsurprising that there hasn’t been any reported interest in him (that doesn’t mean there isn’t any) since he’s a DH-only who was just 8% above league average last year by wRC+. He’d still be an upgrade for a bunch of teams but I can also understand those teams not wanting to lock in their DH slot. If he’s open to sitting more often (maybe against tough righties?) he’d make a lot of sense for the Diamondbacks, Padres, Royals, and Giants (though the latter two teams don’t have good parks to hit in). Marlins also make sense if he’s fine playing for a non-contender.
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2:04 |
: What will the Brewers do with their infield? Move Ortiz, Turang, or neither to SS?
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2:07 |
: I think it’s going to depend on who wins the open infield spot. If Oliver Dunn is the starting 3B, then Ortiz at SS and Turang stays at 2B. If Caleb Durbin is the starting 2B, then Turang moves to SS and Ortiz stays at 3B. Still a few good free agent options, too. I think Jose Iglesias would be a good fit at 2B and Yoan Moncada would be an interesting bounce-back candidate at 3B.
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2:07 |
: Do the Cubs still need a RHH 1B to backup Michael Busch or could Jon Berti do that this season?
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2:09 |
: My guess is they’d be totally fine if it just ends up being Berti. Backup 1B as a more specific role has kinda gone by the wayside since the universal DH — usually the backup 1B was also your top PH, shoutout Daryle Ward and Greg Norton! — and now it’s a lot of “we’ll give this guy some work in spring training just in case we need him.”
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2:10 |
: Estevez or Erceg get first crack at closing in KC?
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2:11 |
: I think it’s either Estevez or “no set closer” and then it’s still mostly Estevez with Erceg getting a good share. Maybe an an occasional save chance for one of the other guys (Harvey, Schreiber, Zerpa). Erceg seems pretty comfortable coming in earlier than the 9th and getting 4+ outs. I can see him getting some 4-5 out saves, but I think he’s always more likely to get the call earlier in the game than Estevez. So less likely for a save chance.
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2:12 |
: It seems highly unlikely he will be moved, but what could the Astros get for Framber Valdez?
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2:14 |
: The Burnes deal is going to be my go-to comp for Framber, Cease, and King since they all have very roughly the same trade value. The Astros now are a good comp to the Brewers last offseason in that they’ll want MLB-ready talent, probably specifically a LHH OF and a pitcher (starter or reliever, or some kind of hybrid, like DL Hall). Heston Kjerstaad and Cade Povich very broadly fit that mold, just to throw a hypothetical out there.
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2:15 |
: What the heck do you all make of the Dodgers pen at this point? RR makes it look like a big shrug emoji and I’m not sure I blame you. Feels like Scott and Yates prob have a leg up on the rest for saves though, no?
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2:18 |
: I have it listed as committee right now just because I think Dave Roberts is super confident (maybe even a bit arrogant) about his roster (why wouldn’t he be?) and it would be kind of a flex to just have 5-6 different guys getting saves so he can prove that anyone in his bullpen can be a closer. However, Scott/Yates got paid like closers and I’d expect them to get the biggest share of save chances.
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2:19 |
: Where do you see Rengifo playing mostly in 2025? How many total games?
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2:20 |
allocating him 595 PA, second on the team. Most of that is evenly split between second and third, but Christian Moore coming up sooner than expected would force Rengifo to bounce around more, or just have him take over at third with Rendon on the bench/DHing more.
: Right now we’re |
2:20 |
: What was Yamamoto’s health history in japan? Any red flags?
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2:22 |
: Red flag is that he throws a baseball as fast as he can for a living. In all seriousness, I think he stayed relatively healthy in Japan. Not even sure if he’s had a TJ surgery. Not sure if that a good thing or not since it eventually comes for every pitcher.
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2:23 |
: Is Starling Marte a short-side platoon guy at this point?
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2:24 |
: If he’s on the Mets, that’s really all that’s open for him. They’ve tried to trade him somewhere where he can get more playing time but they understandably have had a lot of trouble with that since he’s making $19 million this year and is really poor on defense now.
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2:24 |
: Is there a way to communicate the degree of confidence in listing a team’s closer(s), especially where there are multiple candidates (see DET) or unproven ones (see CHW)?
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2:28 |
: You can ask me here, social media, or email me at rosters@fangraphs.com. Always happy to discuss my thinking behind any roster or playing time projection. Most of the closer projections that show a co-closing situation or committee fall somewhere between “multiple good candidates” and “zero good candidates”. Tigers have multiple good ones and showed last season that they weren’t afraid to go with different guys. White Sox have zero good candidates.
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2:28 |
: What sort of role(s) do you see Eiberson Castellano in for the Twins to keep him up all year?
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2:29 |
: He’s going to have to show he can be really useful as a multi-inning reliever, because he’s buried on the depth chart for starters. Even if Varland is a full-time reliever he’s still behind López, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews for starts, at minimum.
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2:30 |
: Is Zach Neto expected to be healthy for Opening Day?
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2:33 |
: Not a lot of info available at this time. We just know that he’s “questionable”. A lot of those with “questionable” status will start becoming clearer once Spring Training begins because the manager or GM start answering more questions frequently and they have a better idea on player’s health once they actually show up and start doing baseball activities. I suspect they’ll be cautious with Neto. Seems to be a very important part of their team so they need him at 100%.
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2:33 |
: What are the odds Brendan Rodgers lands somewhere with a (close to) everyday role?
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2:34 |
: I’d say a pretty good chance, since he doesn’t steal bases nor does he play anywhere besides second base, so he’s a very tough sell as anything but a starting second baseman. Yankees have reported interest, and speculatively he’d make sense as a White Sox stopgap or Brewer (if they want to re-rearrange the infield and go with Turang at short and Ortiz at third).
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2:35 |
: Does Curtis Mead get another run at a major-league roll sometime this year? Does he seem like a trade candidate after the Kim signing?
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2:37 |
: Not really a path to playing time, at least not heading into 2025. If the Rays fall out of contention, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe will almost certainly be on the trade market and that would open up some playing time for Mead. Aside from that, I think a trade would be his best bet. Not sure his value is where the Rays would want it to be, though. He might need to put up some big numbers in AAA to draw interest from other teams.
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2:39 |
: Is there room for Ryne Nelson in the crowded rotation/bullpen in Arizona this year? He has some really strong outings in the second half of last year
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2:39 |
: The rotation looks unlikely as things sit, but I’d like to see them try him out in the bullpen. He had that one Sunday Night Baseball start against the Astros where he was throwing 97-99 in the early innings, and if he can do that on every fastball as a reliever, he’d be a real weapon.
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2:40 |
: Will Kike Hernandez be in the Dodgers plans this year? Do they have to release Chris Taylor to make it work?
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2:42 |
: There is room right now. Andy Pages would begin the season in AAA, though. I think they’d be open to releasing Taylor at some point in 2025. Just not before the season begins. Always a chance he figures something out and is a lot better than the last couple seasons.
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2:43 |
: The Giant’s have two stated goals that are seemingly at odds, given the state of their farm and roster. One is to trim payroll, and the other is to compete. We’ve seen moves signaling both of these (e.g trading Rogers for cash relief, signing Adames to a huge deal), but currently it seems like they’re stuck in the middle. Who do you see as realistic targets for them to pursue to accomplish each of these goals, knowing that outside of Eldridge they don’t have much to deal? I’d love a Flaherty signing to open up a trade of a young pitcher, but that feels unlikely at this point.
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2:45 |
estimate they have $30M to work with before hitting last year’s payroll, so they could still cut payroll (just by a smaller amount) while, say, signing Flaherty or Pivetta. I think not reinvesting the Rogers cash would be a mistake with their clear needs (bullpen could use some help and they might want one more bat); I know Posey said they like their roster where it’s at but that could very well be posturing. Baseball ops heads don’t want to come across as desperate.
: I’m not sure these are inherently at odds, since we |
2:46 |
: ETA on ZIPS integration into FGDC? Thanks!
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2:47 |
: Last year, I asked immediately after Dan finished his last team because I’m not very patient. He still had some things to do before it could be mixed into the formula so it took at least a few extra days. Hopefully, we’re on track for sometime next week.
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2:48 |
: What non marquee free agent are you surprised hasn’t signed yet
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2:49 |
: This is a very lame answer, but there aren’t really any that surprise me. If players haven’t signed it’s because there’s a disconnect with what they want (whether that’s money or playing time or location) and what’s out there, and with any given free agent, elite all the way on down, that can be the case. It just takes longer for some guys to either lower their asking price or get a team to up its offer.
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2:50 |
: Jose Iglesias. Mr. OMG.
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2:50 |
: What are the odds Kristian Campbell is the opening day 2b? Will they just sit Vaughn Grissom? Is Campbell really ready for the Show?
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2:52 |
: If I had to put odds on it, I’d say 50/50 right now. Hamilton was interesting enough last season to give him another look, even if it’s just to give Campbell a few more weeks in AAA. But I’m pretty sure if Campbell looks comfortable at 2B and puts up big numbers (not hard to do in Spring Training), it’s gonna be difficult to send him to the minors when he could get a head-start on winning the AL Rookie of the Year award.
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2:53 |
: Will Wagner getting any 3B action this year in Toronto?
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2:54 |
: For sure, especially if they add another hitter to cut into Wagner’s DH time. Clement is fun and interesting but he makes more sense as a bench player who bounces around.
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2:54 |
: A’s are a sneaky team for opportunity as they move to a more offensively lenient park. Looking at their depth chart now – they are throwing Brown/Andujar platoon in LF… how long before they realize they should just give a guy like Colby Thomas full-time PAs?
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2:57 |
: I think Brown/Andujar can be a perfectly adequate platoon. Brown finished strong after they called him back up and Andujar crushes lefties. But, with that said, Brown won’t have a long leash and Thomas might be next in line if he continues to hit well in AAA.
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2:58 |
: Is Kerry Carpenter going to be a platoon player again in 2025? Or do you expect more ABs against LHPs?
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2:59 |
: I anticipate his usage will be very similar to last year, when he almost exclusively faced righties. Just too many righties and switch hitters (Vierling, Ibáñez, Wenceel, Justyn-Henry Malloy) to get playing time for throughout the year.
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2:59 |
: How fair is Cease for Caissie & Birdsell?
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3:02 |
: It’s probably close, although a lot would depend on how much the Padres like Birdsell. He seems to be a prospect on the rise. I’d hope that Javier Assad would be part of the return. Mexican pitcher from Tijuana with 4 years of service time remaining seems like a great fit. Caissie would give them a LF/DH candidate. Add in a prospect (Birdsell or someone similar) and I think it’s a good deal.
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3:03 |
: Which of Detroit’s fringy guys that can’t really field (Tork, JHM, Jung) do you think are most interesting in a trade?
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3:03 |
: Tork for sure. There’s not playing time for him in Detroit anymore, and that “first overall pick” shine doesn’t go away this quickly.
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3:04 |
: Is Kjerstad going to end up with a lot of playing time by filling in whenever another hitter gets a day off, or will he be limited to 100-250 PA?
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3:07 |
: Aside from Gunnar Henderson, the O’s lineup is full of guys who could use 1-2 days off per week. There are easily 400+ PA available for a “bench player” on most teams. Easier said than done, but I also think it’s necessary for Kjerstad this season. Can’t let the young guys sit on the bench too often. If he’s on the team, I’d expect 3-5 starts per week.
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3:07 |
: Should the Giants trade Yastrzemski? What could they get?
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3:08 |
: As their roster currently is composed, no, I wouldn’t trade him. He’s a solidly average or better hitter and good fielder, and there’s not an obvious everyday replacement for him. I don’t think they’d get much back in a deal anyway, so it would become a “why bother?” situation, more so than the Rogers trade.
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3:09 |
: Do you think the Nats are right to stick with Jacob Young in CF rather than moving Wood or Crews there?
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3:11 |
: For sure. Young is an elite defender and he’s not really blocking a top prospect. Maybe Robert Hassell III forces his way into the picture this season. Until then, they can find out if Young is a better hitter than he’s showed so far. On the next great Nats team, I’d guess Young is the 4th OF. But they don’t have to make that decision yet.
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3:11 |
: Who gets more at-bats in Milwaukee this year – Tyler Black or Jeferson Quero?
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3:12 |
: I’ll say Black, that infield is a jumbled mess and he could definitely fight through for plenty of plate appearances, whereas Contreras would play 162 games if they let him, Haase is a solid backup, and Quero will need to get back up to speed after last year’s injury.
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3:13 |
: Any updates on Bradish, when will he be ready to rejoin the rotation?
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3:14 |
: He had Tommy John surgery in June. It is highly unlikely that he returns in 2025. Good news is that he’s under team control thru 2028 and he should be ready for a full season in 2026. That doesn’t mean we won’t hear about how great his arm feels and how he’s ahead of schedule several times throughout the season.
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3:14 |
: No question, just wanted to thank you guys for all of the work you do! Obsessively checking the roster pages and the matrix makes the winter go by faster
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3:15 |
: Appreciate it! I love the offseason almost as much as the regular season. Only a few more slow-ish weeks and then non-stop baseball in the news cycle.
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3:16 |
: Thanks for joining us! We’ll be back next Friday at the same time. Have a great weekend.
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