Jack Dreyer has been one of the top performers on a Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff that includes no shortage of better-known hurlers. Amid relative obscurity, the 26-year-old rookie left-hander has logged a a 2.98 ERA and a 2.95 FIP over 46 appearances comprising 57-and-a-third innings. Moreover, only Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been worth more WAR (3.5) than has the 2021 non-drafted free agent out of the University of Iowa (1.3).
Our lead prospect analyst was early to the bandwagon. When our 2025 Dodgers Top Prospects list was published in late April, Eric Longenhagen described Dreyer as “incredibly deceptive,” adding that his whippy arm action delivers a fastball that has “20 inches of due north vertical break as it explodes toward the plate.”
The southpaw’s signature pitch wasn’t seen as plus during his injury-marred Iowa Hawkeyes days.
“In college, I was always told that I have average spin rate, so I can’t really throw my fastball at the top of the zone,” recalled Dreyer, who missed much of the 2019 season with a shoulder injury, then all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. “I was told that I had a very average fastball. I kind of believed that, but then I got to the Dodgers and they were like, ‘No, actually, your stuff is really, really good. You can live at the top of the zone because of how your pitch moves.’ So, that’s kind of how I’ve adapted my pitching, using heaters at the top, which opens up my other pitches.”
Dreyer’s secondaries comprise a curveball that he’s thrown at a 10.8% clip this season, and a “bad slider” that he’s thrown far more frequently at 45.2%. More on the latter in a moment.
A three-time Academic All Big Ten selection who majored in finance (and is masterful with a Rubik’s Cube) Dreyer didn’t simply shrug when informed that his 92.6-mph four-seamer is anything but average. Ever curious, he asked why.
“They said that I have a really efficient throw, which helps the induced vertical break,” explained the southpaw, whose father, Steve Dreyer, pitched for the Texas Rangers in 1993 and 1994. “They told me that to hitters the ball looks like it’s somewhere it’s not. Slowly, I started to trust that more and more as I saw that it was working. While I obviously don’t have overpowering velocity, it’s kind of become my bread and butter.”
And then there is the pitch that he throws 88.1 mph. Unlike his heater, it isn’t exploding toward the plate. Nor is it dipping, diving or sweeping.
“My slider is usually around zero-zero,” Dreyer told me. “I’s a pretty pure gyro; there’s not a ton of movement. At the lower levels, I would always use my slider as a ‘bad pitch’ that would force bad contact. Since getting to the big leagues, I’ve been able to use it as more of a swing-and-miss pitch. It’s been exciting to see that it is playing at this level.”
A bad pitch that induces swing-and-miss at baseball’s highest level?
“Yes,” said Dreyer. “Quote unquote bad. Pitchers always chase movement, so a pitch that doesn’t have very much movement is something people might consider to be bad, even though the results say otherwise. Knowing the batters — all of the data we have — and how to use it off my fastball, allows it to play up.”
The deception that Longenhagen cited in his April report also helps the under-the-radar hurler’s stuff play up.
“That’s another thing,” Dreyer acknowledged. “We have guys like Emmet Sheehan, or even Jack Little, who have super-low-slot ride. I don’t think I’m quite as far on the spectrum as they are, but there are definitely things that make [pitches play better]. Maybe there is some deception. I haven’t looked into it much, though. I just keep going with whatever is going to work.”
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Pat Rockett went 4 for 7 against Mark Lemongello.
John Glenn went 2 for 4 against Chris Short.
Greg Olson went 7 for 16 against Jack Armstrong.
Jack Shepard went 11 for 25 against Harvey Haddix.
Dick McAuliffe went 15 for 27 against Jose Santiago.
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What has been the worst pitch you’ve thrown this season? I asked that question to Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown last weekend at Fenway Park.
“The worst pitch I’ve thrown this year was in the first inning to José Ramírez, against Cleveland, four or five outings ago,” replied Brown, who has a 2.51 ERA and a 2.89 FIP over 136-and-a-third mostly stellar innings. “I had him as a guy that I wasn’t going to throw any changeups in the zone to in his first at-bat. I just wanted to see where he was at on my changeup. I got into a leverage count — I think it was 1-2 or 2-2 — and tried to thrown a changeup three balls off the plate. I yanked it right down the middle, and he hit a homer.
“As soon as I let it go, the exclamation point above my head went off like in the Wii baseball game,” the All-Star added. It was, ‘Oh boy, that’s not good.’ He hit it a long way.”
Per Statcast, Ramírez’s July 8 home run was hit 378 feet with a 101.2 exit velocity and a 34-degree launch angle. Meanwhile, another pitcher I asked the worst-pitch question to described a dinger that put Ramírez’s to shame.
“It would be a 2-0 fastball I threw to Aaron Judge [on June 10],” said Kansas City Royals rookie left-hander Noah Cameron, who has a 2.52 ERA and a 3.67 FIP over 93 innings. “It was a very big mistake. He hit it very far. It was the first inning, there was a runner on base, I got behind 2-0, and I threw a fastball middle in, right in his honey hole. He hit it something like 470 feet. That was a fun one to watch.”
Statcast had Judge’s blast at 469 feet with a 117.9 exit velocity and a 31-degree launch angle. It is longest home run the Yankees superstar has hit this season.
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A quiz:
Robin Yount is the Milwaukee Brewers franchise leader in numerous offensive categories, including doubles and total bases. Which Brewer ranks second to Yount in those two categories?
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NEWS NOTES
Alex Wood, who threw the final pitch of his 12-year MLB career last season, announced his retirement on Friday. The 34-year-old southpaw went 77-68 with a 3.78 ERA while pitching for five teams.
Felix Torres, an infielder who payed in 365 games for the Los Angeles Angels across the 1962-1964 seasons, died on Friday at age 93 (per Baseball Player Passings). A native of Ponce, Puerto Rico, Torres logged 302 hits, including 27 home runs. His first long ball came against Hall of Famer Early Wynn.
Registration is now open for the SABR/WBC Women In Baseball Conference, which will be held virtually on Zoom from September 11-13. More information, including the schedule, can be found here.
The Women’s Pro Baseball League (WPBL) is holding tryouts in Washington DC at Nationals Park and the Nationals Youth Baseball Academy from August 22-25. More information can be found here.
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The answer to the quiz is Ryan Braun. Paul Molitor ranks third in both categories, while Cecil Cooper and Geoff Jenkins are fourth and fifth respectively.
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Jeff Montgomery gave up a game-tying, two-run homer to Don Mattingly at Yankee Stadium on May 20, 1990. Then the closer for the Kansas City Royals, Montgomery not only delivered an errant pitch, he almost landed his catcher in hot water by throwing it.
“We had the pitchers’ meeting before the game and talked about the hitters,” recalled the now-Royals broadcast analyst. “One of things they talked about was how Mattingly was such a good breaking ball hitter.
“In the ninth inning, Mattingly comes to the plate,’ continued Montgomery. “Mike Macfarlane was catching, and he puts down fastball. I shake him. He puts down fastball again, and I shake him again. He puts down fastball a third time, and I shake him one more time. So, he puts down curveball. I throw the curveball. Mattingly hits it into the bleachers.
‘We’re in the clubhouse after the game — my locker is right there by Macfarlane’s locker — and our pitching coach, whose name was Frank Funk, comes over. He’s letting Macfarlane have it. ‘Did you have your ears plugged when we were in the pitchers’ meeting? What were we talking about?’ Macfarlane is just sitting there, taking it like a good teammate. He tells Frank that he’s sorry, and that it won’t happen again. Frank tells him that if it does happen again, he’s going back to [Triple-A] Omaha.
“I stood up and said to Frank, ‘Were you not watching the game? I shook him three times to get to the breaking ball. He put down fastball three different times. It was on me.’”
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Grant Hartwig was credited with his first NPB win on Tuesday as the Hanshin Tigers topped the Chunichi Dragons 6-2. The 27-year-old right-hander — featured here at FanGraphs in 2023 a few months before he made his MLB debut — signed with the Japanese club last month after being released by the New York Mets.
Raidel Martinez recorded his NPB-best 33rd save of the season yesterday as the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants beat the Yokohama DeNA BayStars 4-3. The 28-year-old right-hander has 199 saves for his career.
Woo Joo Jeong has a 34.2% strikeout rate (third-highest in the KBO) to go with a 3.86 ERA and a 4.25 FIP over 35 innings for the Hanwha Eagles. The 18-year-old right-hander was selected second-overall in last September’s KBO draft.
Daniel Mengden is 8-5 with a 4.00 ERA over 90 innings for the Mexican League’s Tecolotes de los Dos Laredos. The 32-year-old right-hander pitched for the Oakland Athletics from 2016-2020 and for the Kansas City Royals in 2022.
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The Kansas City Royals have been pretty consistent with their batting order this season, particularly at the top. Jonathan India has batted leadoff in all but three of the games he’s started, while Bobby Witt Jr. has batted second in all of his. According to manager Matt Quatraro, that’s by design. With newly-acquired Mike Yastrzemski penciled into the leadoff spot, and India in the seven-hole for a recent game at Fenway Park, I asked Quatraro for his thoughts on consistency versus matchup-based batting orders.
“This year, our lineup has been pretty set,” replied Quatraro. “The top five have been pretty set. We’ve tweaked it a couple of times. We did it in June once when we moved Salvy [Salvador Perez] and Maikel [Garcia] to four-five. But overall, it depends on how your team is constructed. If you have guys who are playing every day you approach it a little more like you’re fixed. If you’re having guys who are platooning, you can be a little more matchup-based.”
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A random obscure former player snapshot:
Dan Rohn hit run-scoring triples in each of his first two big-league games — those on back-to-back days in September 1983 — and he then hit a pinch-hit home run in his first plate appearance the following season. That was pretty much it for career highlights. All told, the Alpena, Michigan native, and erstwhile Central Michigan University Chippewa, logged 18 hits in 71 at-bats while playing for the Chicago Cubs in 1983-1984, and briefly for the Cleveland Indians in 1986. Rohn later managed in the minors for several seasons, including eight in the Seattle system.
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FARM NOTES
Henry Godbout went 2-for-3 and also drew three walks while making his professional debut with the High-A Greenville Drive on Wednesday. The 21-year-old second baseman was drafted 75th overall by the Boston Red Sox out of the University of Virginia.
Sal Stewart is slashing .306/.373/.495 with 14 home runs and a 146 wRC+ over 408 plate appearances between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. Drafted 32nd overall in 2022 out of Miami’s Westminster Christian School, the 211-year-old third baseman/second baseman is No. 6 on our updated Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects list.
Dakota Jordan is slashing .312/.380/.501 with 14 home runs and a 138 wRC+ over 411 plate appearances for the Low-A San Jose Giants. Drafted 116th overall last year out of Mississippi State University, the 22-year-old outfielder is No.12 on our updated San Francisco Giants Top Prospects list.
David Shields has a 2.18 ERA, a 2.69 FIP, and a 29.9% strikeout rate over 57-and-two-thirds innings with the Low-A Columbia Fireflies (he’s also thrown four innings in the Arizona Complex League). Drafted 41st overall last year out of Pittsburgh’s Mount Lebanon High School, the 18-year-old left-hander is No. 16 on our updated Kansas City Royals Top Prospects list.
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Kyle Karros was featured here at FanGraphs earlier this week, with the hot-hitting Colorado Rockies prospect talking about his approach, as well as his relationship with his father, former big-league slugger Eric Karros.
I recently asked Rockies hitting coach Nic Wilson for a snapshot of the 23-year-old third baseman, whom Colorado selected in the fifth round of the 2023 draft out of UCLA.
“I think he’s outperformed what a lot of people thought of him coming out of the draft,” said Wilson, who was the organization’s minor league hitting coordinator prior to joining the major league staff in May. “The thing that jumps off the chart about Kyle is that he is a big-time defender at third base. The glove is real. Range. Big arm. It’s all there. Offensively, I would say that one of his superpowers is approach. Personally, I would rate it as one of our better, if not best, approaches in the org. The at-bats are competitive. He’s also a guy who understands the game at a high level, yet is still hungry to learn. He’s a student of the game.”
Karros received his first big-league call-up on Friday after slashing .301/.398/.476 with six home runs and a 143 wRC+ over 315 plate appearances between Double-A Hartford and Triple-A Albuquerque. Over his first two games with the Rockies, Karros is 2-for-6 with a double and a pair of walks.
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
MiLB.com’s Jim Callis, Sam Dykstra, and Jonathan Mayo teamed up to give us one prospect from each of the 30 organizations whose stock has risen this season.
At NW Baseball History, Amanda Lane Cumming wrote about how the Seattle Mariners went for it at the 1995 trade deadline.
MLB.com’s David Adler talked to Japan’s first Major Leaguer about playing with and against MLB legends in 1964 and 1965.
The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner wrote about Jen Pawol becoming the first female umpire in MLB history (subscription required).
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Washington Nationals pitchers allowed 80 hits over four games earlier this week. Per the Washington Post’s Spencer Nusbaum, no team had given up as many hits over a four-game span since 1932.
Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Jesús Luzardo has a 41.5% strikeout rate and a 4.2% walk rate versus left-handed batters. He has a 23.2% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate versus right-handed batters.
Clayton Kershaw is 11-0 with a 2.15 ERA in 19 career starts against the New York Mets. He is 4-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 17 starts against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was drafted out of UCLA by the Detroit Tigers in 1994. The Tigers traded the 28th-round pick to the Cleveland Indians in 1998.
Albert Belle averaged 40 home runs and 125 RBIs from 1992-1999. The slugger drove in 100 or more runs in all eight seasons.
Gaylord Perry went 24-16 for the Cleveland Indians in 1972, getting a decision in all 40 of his starts. The Hall of Fame right-hander also made one relief appearance, working a scoreless 16th inning and earning a save.
Juan Marichal recorded his 50th shutout on today’s date in 1971, while Don Sutton recorded his 50th shutout on today’s date in 1979. Marichal finished his career with 52, Sutton with 58.
On today’s date in 1940, Joe DiMaggio hit one of New York’s five home runs as the Yankees hammered the Philadelphia Athletics 13-0. Rookie right-hander Tiny Bonham, who two years later would go 21-5 with a 2.27 ERA, went the distance for his first career win.
Players born on today’s date include Clint Hartung, who is most remembered as a ballyhooed prospect who never lived up to his billing. Suiting up for the New York Giants from 1947-1952, the native of Hondo, Texas went 29-29 with a 5.02 ERA on the mound, and hit 14 home runs with an 80 wRC+ at the plate. His at-bats didn’t all come as a pitcher. Hartung played in 45 games an outfielder and another as a first baseman. Two of his homers were off of Warren Spahn.
Also born on today’s date was Truck Eagan, an infielder who played briefly for the National League’s Pittsburgh Pirates, and in the American League for Cleveland (no nickname at that time) in 1901. The San Francisco native also spent several years in the minors, mostly in the Pacific Coast League. His stops included stints with the 1899 San Jose Brewers, 1902 Sacramento Gilt Edges, and 1906 Fresno Raisin Eaters.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com