The 2025 Replacement-Level Killers: Introduction & First Base

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is generally in the ballpark, though my final lists also incorporate our Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, which may nose them over the line. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%; the Guardians (43-48 with 9.5% odds) form the lower boundary of the 21 teams under consideration this year, up from 20 last year but down from 22 in 2023. While I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature.

This first installment will cover first basemen. All statistics within this piece are through July 9 unless otherwise noted.

Giants

LaMonte Wade Jr. received most of the playing time at first base during the first two and a half months of the season, but when the Giants decided his magic, late night or otherwise, had run out in early June, they designated him for assignment (eventually trading him to the Angels) and added Dominic Smith, who has since hit a perfectly Dominic Smith-like .243/.326/.351 (95 wRC+). However, the roster has undergone an even bigger shakeup since that pair of transactions, as the Giants traded for Rafael Devers less than two weeks later. His arrival bumped full-time designated hitter Wilmer Flores into short-half platoon duty, but he hasn’t exactly been tearing things up (.248/.322/.381, 102 wRC+). For that matter, neither has Devers (.225/.344/.363, 104 wRC+ post-trade, but with a 137 wRC+ overall).

The drama in Boston that preceded the Devers trade (more on which below) included the 28-year-old slugger’s refusal to play first base during the season, but upon being dealt, Devers expressed a willingness to learn the new position. He has been working out at first but has been slowed by both a minor groin injury and some back tightness, and so won’t make his debut at the spot until after the All-Star break at the earliest. Assuming his bat comes around and that he plays a substantial amount of time there (which may be a stretch), that still leaves the Giants with a low-wattage Smith/Flores platoon at one position or the other. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge, a lefty-swinging 20-year-old who’s currently no. 17 on The Board as a 6-foot-7, 55-FV prospect, scuffled mightily (.230/.284/.426, 74 wRC+) in his first 16 games after being promoted to Triple-A Sacramento, then strained his right hamstring in late June. He won’t return until later this month; given all that, it’s tough to see him coming up to replace Smith, at least just yet. Thus it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team adds another capable first baseman, but don’t expect another franchise-jolting move.

Red Sox

Always with the drama! Triston Casas’ season-ending rupture of his left patellar tendon led the Red Sox to ask Devers to play first, but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s poor handling of the Alex Bregman signing as it pertained to Devers’ third base role cooled the slugger’s response and led to a trade that looks suboptimal, at least from a short-term standpoint.

For all of that, the Red Sox have gotten respectable production at first base lately from switch-hitting utilityman Abraham Toro (.286/.333/.440, 109 wRC+) and righty Romy Gonzalez (.338/.372/.603, 160 wRC+), the latter of whom has additionally been playing second base. Neither has track records that support those levels of offense, however, and their defense has been wobbly as well. Rookie Kristian Campbell, who hit just .223/.319/.345 (86 wRC+) and played a very rough second base before being sent to Triple-A Worcester in mid-June, has been learning first base down on the farm, but even if he takes to the position, that won’t automatically bring his offense up to par.

All of which is to say that the Red Sox could use a stronger solution at first, particularly now that they’ve won seven in a row to play their way into the AL Wild Card race, but whether Breslow’s front office has the appetite to pull off the kind of deal needed for a real upgrade is an open question. The team does have a glut of outfielders, but swapping Wilyer Abreu or Jarren Duran, both of whom have several years of club control remaining, for a short-term option like the Diamondbacks’ Josh Naylor or the Orioles’ Ryan O’Hearn doesn’t make much sense.

Twins

From the outset, signing Ty France to be the regular first baseman was a head-scratching move; he totaled -0.8 WAR while hitting for an 93 wRC+ between the Mariners and Reds last year, making the Killers list for the former shortly before being DFA’d and dealt to the latter — and it wasn’t the first time he’d drawn mention in this space. France has hit a similarly tepid .252/.312/.360 (90 wRC+) thus far, albeit with a .454 xSLG and dramatically improved defensive metrics (4 FRV and 2 DRS, up from -9 and -7, respectively) to keep him on the positive side of replacement level and keep the front office on his side. Kody Clemens, who’s taken eight of the 10 starts at first not made by France, has been more productive than France (.203/.293/.471, 110 wRC+) while spending even more time at second base (38 games, including 25 starts), but he’s largely been shielded from lefties.

The team does have righty Jose Miranda, lefty Edouard Julien, and switch-hitter Mickey Gasper, all of whom have first base experience, at Triple-A St. Paul. Miranda hit for a 114 wRC+ for the Twins last year, but his defense at either infield corner has been suspect, to say the least. Julien has hit for just a 77 wRC+ in the majors since the start of 2024, and Gasper, a 29-year-old utilityman who can catch, owns just a .115/.258/.135 in 62 plate appearances in the majors. The Twins (45-47 at this writing) could use a real upgrade if they’re serious about contending, but they may wind up as sellers if they can’t climb back above .500.

Rangers

Jake Burger was supposed to satisfy the Rangers’ appetite for a productive first baseman, but he’s left them wanting more, hitting just .228/.260/.403 (82 wRC+). The Rangers briefly optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock in May, and he spent time at Double-A Frisco rehabbing an oblique strain in early July; he’s hit .296/.321/.407 (106 wRC+) in his first 28 PA since returning from the latter stint. To be fair, Burger has hit the ball hard enough to produce a .471 xSLG, but he’s chasing nearly 40% of pitches outside the zone, striking out 25.6% of the time with just a 2.9% walk rate.

Josh Smith, who’s served as the primary fill-in for Burger, has hit a robust .287/.361/.434 (124 wRC+), but he’s been playing regularly at third base since Josh Jung was optioned, and his versatility — which allowed him to cover shortstop during Corey Seager’s absence and to spot at second and all three outfield positions as well — makes him too valuable to park at first. Justin Foscue, a 40+ FV prospect who hasn’t hit a lick in 50 PA in the majors and is batting a modest .269/.360/.487 (111 wRC+) at Round Rock, probably isn’t the answer given his lack of power or defensive ability. The team did just sign Rowdy Tellez to a minor league deal, but that comes after he hit just .208/.249/.434 (92 wRC+) and was cut loose by the Mariners in late June; this is the fourth year out of five in which he’s posted a sub-zero WAR. Count the Rangers as another team that needs an upgrade if they want to contend, but could wind up selling if things don’t improve.

Astros

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it, which goes for both the Astros’ recent penchant for questionable free agent deals with first basemen in their mid-30s (first José Abreu, now Christian Walker) and for overcoming slow starts to take control of the AL West. I checked in on the 34-year-old Walker on May 23, when he was hitting .199/.268/.333 (72 wRC+). His bat has actually perked up substantially since then (.279/.327/.449, 117 wRC+). Likewise, at my last writing, the Astros trailed the Mariners by 3 1/2 games after losing to them that night to fall to 26-25, but since then, they’ve gone an AL-best 29-13 and they now lead the division by seven games. I don’t have particularly high hopes that Walker’s three-year, $60 million deal will age well, but it’s tough to see Houston targeting first base as a priority at the deadline.

Mariners

While France is no longer a Mariner, the team’s situation hasn’t entirely improved. Tellez struggled as the team’s primary first baseman before being DFA’d and then released. Lately, the team has used a platoon featuring lefty Luke Raley and righty Donovan Solano. After hitting 22 homers and posting a 129 wRC+ for the Mariners last year, Raley has batted just .231/.341/.359 (109 wRC+) with three homers in 139 PA; he missed seven weeks (all of May and most of June) due to an oblique strain, and it was his return that bumped Tellez off the roster. Solano has hit a thin .246/.286/.333 (79 wRC+); as he’s no longer playing anywhere besides first base (one two-inning cameo at third excepted), his hold on a roster spot has to be tenuous.

With Dominic Canzone hitting well as the team’s regular right fielder, Raley is likely to get most of the playing time at first going forward, but he could still use a better platoon partner than Solano. Switch-hitter Carlos Santana — who spent the second half of 2022 with the Mariners — could be useful in this capacity if the Guardians wind up selling; he owns a 129 wRC+ against lefties since the start of 2023.

Reds

Circa 2023, both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were productive hitters for the Reds, but both have fallen off since then. Steer has started 58 games at first base while getting additional time at DH and in the outfield corners, but he has hit just .252/.307/.405 (94 wRC+) in the wake of right shoulder woes. He’s swinging and missing more than ever, and both his 6.9% walk rate and 24.2% strikeout rate represent swings of three to four points in the wrong direction relative to last year. What’s more, when he does make contact, he’s averaging just 86.8 mph in average exit velocity, with a 30.6% hard-hit rate and .346 xSLG. Encarnacion-Strand has hit just .208/.234/.377 (60 wRC+) while playing a bit of third base in addition to first; he missed seven weeks due to lower back inflammation but has produced just an 89 wRC+ in 77 PA since returning.

Neither Connor Joe, who’s on the major league roster, nor Edwin Ríos, their regular first baseman at Triple-A Louisville, offer much hope of improving the situation, so the Reds are another team that’s going to have to look outside their organization to find an upgrade.