The Reds Have Completely Crashed in May

With his combination of power and speed, Elly De La Cruz may be the eighth wonder of the world, or merely one of baseball’s most improved players, but lately he’s been just about the only one keeping the Reds relevant. After starting the season in promising fashion, Cincinnati has now dropped seven straight series, most recently losing three out of four against the Dodgers in Los Angeles while slipping into last place in the NL Central. Thanks to an offense that’s gone missing, the Reds own a major league-worst 3-14 record in May. Yuck.

They had their chances to arrest their slide against the Dodgers. After winning 7-2 on Thursday, the Reds fell behind early 3-0 on Friday as Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani both homered off Frankie Montas. They clawed their way back to tie the game, and looked to build upon that when Mike Ford singled off James Paxton to open the seventh. Paxton got the hook in favor of righty Michael Grove, while Jake Fraley pinch-hit for Stuart Fairchild and Jacob Hurtubise pinch-ran for Ford. On a 1-1 count, Grove picked off Hurtubise, and he soon escaped the inning; the Dodgers responded by putting up two runs apiece against relievers Fernando Cruz and Alexis Díaz in the next two innings to pull away for a 7-3 win.

After being shut out by Walker Buehler and friends on Saturday, the Reds squandered numerous opportunities that would have allowed them to escape with a split. They left 10 runners on base in Sunday’s 10-inning loss, and while they erased a 2-0 deficit to tie the game in the seventh, De La Cruz struck out with men on second and third in both that inning and the ninth, part of a tough 0-for-5, four-strikeout day. The Reds lost when Díaz walked Will Smith with one out, forcing him to pitch to Ohtani, who singled for his first walk-off hit since September 4, 2020.

The Reds won 14 of their first 24 games to start the season, and finished April a respectable 16-14, putting them in third place behind the Brewers (18-11) and Cubs (18-12). With just five games separating the Brewers from the last-place Pirates at the time, Cincinnati was smack dab in the middle of the most tightly packed division, 2.5 games out. But the bottom soon fell out for the Reds, as they lost their final game of April to the Padres, kicking off an eight-game losing streak that included three-game sweeps by the Orioles (who held them to just two runs) and Diamondbacks (who held them to nine runs). Including a 3-7 road trip — which featured series losses to the Giants, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers — Cincinnati now has dropped 18 out of 23 to fall to 19-28 overall.

The primary culprit for the Reds’ slide is their offense, which has hit for a major league-worst 70 wRC+ in May (.212/.282/.324) and ranks third worst in the NL on the season, at 82 (.217/.294/.358). During that eight-game losing streak, the team scored just 17 runs, and it has been held to two runs or fewer in nine out of this month’s 17 games; meanwhile, it has topped five runs just twice in that span. Overall, the Reds are scoring 4.15 runs per game, which ranks 9th in the NL, but the splits, woof:

As you can see, the Reds have underperformed their Pythagenpat-projected winning percentage in both good times and bad; their four-win shortfall is tied for the majors’ highest. They’re nine games below .500 despite being outscored by just seven runs, owing largely to the fact that they’re an unfathomable 1-11 in one-run games, including Sunday’s loss. Some of that falls on the shoulders of the bullpen, which I’ll get to, but first, back to the offense.

During the spring, the Reds appeared to have quite a glut of talented infielders following the addition of free agent Jeimer Candelario, but that depth was compromised before Opening Day. Noelvi Marte drew an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug, and then Matt McLain injured his left shoulder diving for a ball during a spring training game; just two days before the Reds’ first game, he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum and damaged cartilage. The infield playing-time picture cleared up without those two expected contributors, but their absences also gave manager David Bell less flexibility to optimize his lineup, even after the Reds acquired Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays,

Flash forward more than a quarter of the way through the season and the infield is such a mess beyond De La Cruz that the Reds are below replacement level at first base, second base, and — wait for it — third base. First baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit just .190/.220/.293 (38 wRC+) before being sidelined by a fracture in his right wrist; he may not be back until mid-June. Candelario and Spencer Steer have shared the position in CES’ absence, with Ford starting a couple of games as well; overall, Reds first basemen have hit .220/.254/.323 (58 wRC+), a batting line that wouldn’t pass muster if it were coming from even the slickest-fielding shortstop. In the absence of both McLain and Marte, Jonathan India and Candelario have gotten the bulk of the work at second and third, respectively, with Espinal splitting time between the two positions. All have been significantly below average, with Candelario (.220/.285/.387, 86 wRC+) at least offering some punch, and India (.219/.327/.295, 81 wRC+) at least getting on base with respectable frequency thanks to a 12.9% walk rate. Espinal (.200/.254/.286, 48 wRC+) has been just dreadful.

Against that backdrop, De La Cruz has been the lone bright spot. The 22-year-old phenom has hit .256/.352/.476 for a team-high 132 wRC+ (up from last year’s 84). With nine homers and a major league-leading 30 steals, he’s on pace for 31 of the former and 103 of the latter. In case you’re wondering, the record for home runs by a player with at least 100 steals is 10 (Rickey Henderson in 1982), while last year Ronald Acuña Jr. set the record for the most steals by a player with at least 30 homers, with 73. De La Cruz has been a bit below average defensively (-1 FRV, -3 DRS, -3.4 UZR), but he’s nonetheless on pace for 6.8 WAR. As Sunday amply illustrated, he’s still strikeout-prone, but whether or not he’s making contact, he’s improved substantially relative to last season:

The only other position where the Reds have gotten a 100 WRC+ or better is catcher, where Tyler Stephenson has hit for a 139 wRC+ in that role, enough to offset Luke Maile’s 59. Stephenson has rebounded from last year’s sub-replacement level season (85 wRC+, -0.6 WAR) to hit .273/.352/.473 (128 wRC+) overall despite going hitless in 10 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter or DH. Encouragingly, after being 10.6 runs below average in framing last year, he’s 1.6 above average this year, with his Statcast numbers showing a similar turnaround.

As for the outfield, it’s been unproductive as well, with injuries looming large; the group as a whole has combined for an 84 wRC+ and 0.1 WAR. Coming off a 4.0-WAR, 116-wRC+ breakout season, center fielder TJ Friedl has been limited to just six games; he fractured his right wrist diving for a ball on March 16, then on May 12 he was hit by a pitch on the left thumb, breaking it as well. Lefty Will Benson and righty Fairchild have filled in, with Benson also spotting in left field when Steer plays first and in a right field share with the lefty Fraley. Steer’s 103 wRC+ (.224/.337/.373) ranks third on the team, while Fraley (93 wRC+), Fairchild (89 wRC+), and Benson (88 wRC+) have all been less productive. Cincinnati designated hitters, mainly Nick Martini, Ford, and India, have combined for an NL-worst 59 wRC+.

The offense has a few basic problems. For one, it is the league’s least productive lineup against righties, at 78 wRC+ (.212/.279/.361), with Benson and the switch-hitting De La Cruz the only regulars at 100 or better. The switch-hitting Candelario has managed just a 57 wRC+ (with a 30.6% strikeout rate) against righties, and the other lefties have failed provide enough support. But more than that, against pitchers of either hand, the Reds are not only having trouble making contact, but they’re also struggling to make high-quality contact when they do put the ball in play. Their 25.4% strikeout rate ranks second in the NL, up from last year’s 24.2%, with the overexposed Benson (39%) striking out even more frequently than De La Cruz; Stephenson, India, Steer, and Espinal are the only regulars at or below 20%. The Reds aren’t exceptionally chase happy (30.3%, sixth best in the NL), but they’re just not consistent in the zone (85.1% contact rate, 10th in the NL). All of that is compounded by their ranking dead last in the majors in average exit velocity (87.8 mph), with their 7% barrel rate and 37.2% hard-hit rate both the NL’s fourth-lowest marks.

On the other side of the ball, the Reds’ rotation has by and large pitched respectably, recording a 3.87 ERA (sixth in the NL) an 4.14 FIP (ninth). Montas has been shaky after missing nearly all of last season due to shoulder surgery, posting a 4.37 ERA and 5.50 FIP, and swingman Nick Martinez has struggled when spotting for injured starters, but Hunter Greene (3.33 ERA, 3.32 FIP) has come into his own, and Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo (who’s been limited to six starts by groin and calf strains) have pitched pretty well, too.

It’s the bullpen, which ranks eighth in the NL with a 4.18 ERA and 11th with a 4.02 FIP, that’s the bigger problem. Díaz, who has converted seven of nine save chances, is carrying a 7.02 ERA, and even if one overlooks his four-run implosion in a third of an inning on May 5 — a game in which the Reds had already trailed 6-0 — he’s at 4.96. The other four relievers with a leverage index of 1.0 or higher — setup men Cruz and Emilio Pagán, and middlemen Lucas Sims and the now-injured Justin Wilson — all have ERAs of 4.00 or higher, with all but Pagán above 5.00. Walks have been a real problem among this group, with Díaz (16.3%), Sims (14.8%), and Cruz (14.3%) in the stratosphere, though at least Cruz is striking out 42.9% of all hitters. Adding injury to insult here, Pagán left Sunday’s game in the ninth inning after a 1-1 pitch to Jason Heyward, complaining of triceps pain; Díaz struck out Heyward but was still on the mound in the 10th to give up the winning run.

Aside from waiting for Friedl and Encarnacion-Strand to heal quickly and the latter to improve, there’s not a whole lot for Bell to do other than continue to mix and match and hope for better results. There’s no hot prospect on the farm waiting to provide a lift. Marte won’t be eligible to return for another month, and McLain won’t be back until at least August, if at all. With their Playoff Odds already down to 6.7%, the Reds need to do a lot better if they’re going to still be relevant when their missing players return.